DCF Studio

    FIX · NYQ · Industrials

    Comfort Systems USA, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 750.84

    Market price

    USD 1200.14

    Implied upside

    -37.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 28.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 750.84-37.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 1404.37+17.0%
    Market price
    USD 1200.14

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.7bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 21.4bnUSD 25.8bnUSD 30.3bnUSD 34.8bnUSD 38.8bnUSD 42.1bnUSD 44.4bnUSD 45.5bn+14.3%
    EBITUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bn+14.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+14.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 244.4mUSD 309.6mUSD 382.8mUSD 461.8mUSD 543.1mUSD 622.3mUSD 694.3mUSD 753.6mUSD 795.2mUSD 815.1m+14.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -214.1mUSD -269.2mUSD -330.4mUSD -395.7mUSD -461.9mUSD -525.3mUSD -581.6mUSD -626.5mUSD -656.1mUSD -667.3m+13.5%
    Capex, % of revenue1.6%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -831.2mUSD -665.1mUSD -747.0mUSD -805.7mUSD -829.6mUSD -808.2mUSD -734.2mUSD -605.1mUSD -424.5mUSD -202.8m-14.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 254.8mUSD 712.6mUSD 958.9mUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.5bn+33.6%
    Discount factor0.94970.85660.77260.69690.62850.56690.51130.46120.41600.3752-
    Present valueUSD 242.0mUSD 610.4mUSD 740.9mUSD 874.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.431Reported 1.643, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.95%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 188.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 42.2bn98.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 483.4m1.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.87%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 750.84

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -335.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    29.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 43.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 26.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -498.5m
    Equity value
    USD 26.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 1404.37

    80% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 105.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 39.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 49.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -498.5m
    Equity value
    USD 49.7bn

    Spread between methods: 61%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.87%970.421003.631042.611088.821144.30
    9.87%829.74851.25876.12905.10939.15
    10.87%720.51734.64750.84769.49791.10
    11.87%633.54642.85653.47665.63679.59
    12.87%562.88568.95575.87583.78592.84

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1200.14. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year30.0%17.5%24.2%
    EBIT margin14.4%9.8%15.4%
    Discount rate-10.9%8.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.