DCF Studio

    FLEX · NMS · Technology

    Flex Ltd.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 58.24

    Market price

    USD 84.20

    Implied upside

    -30.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-03-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 58.24-30.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 149.21+77.2%
    Market price
    USD 84.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -0bn2bn3bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 35.5bnUSD 46.4bnUSD 59.0bnUSD 72.9bnUSD 87.6bnUSD 102.1bnUSD 115.4bnUSD 126.4bnUSD 134.1bnUSD 137.4bn+16.2%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bn+16.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bn+16.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 700.4mUSD 915.3mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+16.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -727.3mUSD -973.1mUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.4bn+18.8%
    Capex, % of revenue2.0%2.1%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -535.8m-8.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -26.5mUSD -215.9mUSD -103.5mUSD 97.7mUSD 406.6mUSD 834.8mUSD 1.4bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.4bn-
    Discount factor0.95120.86070.77880.70470.63770.57700.52210.47250.42750.3868-
    Present valueUSD -25.2mUSD -185.8mUSD -80.6mUSD 68.8mUSD 259.3mUSD 481.7mUSD 720.9mUSD 957.0mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.527Reported 1.787, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.35%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 31.1bn87.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.3bn12.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.51%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 58.24

    80% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.9bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    10.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 49.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 23.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 22.0bn

    Exit at 16.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 149.21

    92% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 138.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 53.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 58.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 56.4bn

    Spread between methods: 88%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.51%88.8288.8189.0189.4790.27
    9.51%72.4471.6470.8870.1969.57
    10.51%60.3659.3058.2457.1856.12
    11.51%51.4950.5849.6648.7547.83
    12.51%44.2443.4442.6541.8541.05

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 84.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-0.7%17.3%22.7%
    EBIT margin5.2%4.2%5.4%
    Discount rate-10.5%8.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.