DCF Studio

    FRE.DE · GER · Healthcare

    Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    No perpetuity value

    Market price

    EUR 45.92

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis line has no market capitalisation, which means it is not ordinary shares - typically a hybrid, preference line, note or unlisted stub. A discounted cashflow values a claim on the whole business, so applying it here attributes all of the group’s revenue to a security that has no such claim. Its value is its coupon and call schedule. Look up the ordinary line instead.
    Wrong toolTerminal growth of 2.50% must be below the WACC of 2.48% for a perpetuity to converge.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Exit multiple
    EUR 37.86-17.6%
    Market price
    EUR 45.92

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 23.3bnEUR 23.8bnEUR 24.3bnEUR 24.8bnEUR 25.3bn+2.0%
    EBITEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.1bn+2.0%
    NOPATEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bn+2.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bn+2.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.3bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.5bn+2.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 41.4mEUR 42.3mEUR 43.1mEUR 44.0mEUR 44.9m-2.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bn+2.0%
    Discount factor0.98780.96400.94070.91800.8958-
    Present valueEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bn-0.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 6.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.889Reported 0.835, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.94%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.49%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 0.000.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 11.9bn100.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate29.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC2.48%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Terminal growth of 2.50% must be below the WACC of 2.48% for a perpetuity to converge.

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 37.86

    79% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 28.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 25.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 31.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 10.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 21.3bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    0.48%—————
    1.48%—————
    2.48%143.31237.54———
    3.48%63.8368.2276.80102.85—
    4.48%41.5641.8042.0442.2842.52

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 45.92. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Discount rate2.5%4.2%+1.7pp
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    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.