DCF Studio

    FRT · NYQ · Real Estate

    Federal Realty Investment Trust

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 31.28

    Market price

    USD 111.37

    Implied upside

    -71.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 31.28-71.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 103.02-7.5%
    Market price
    USD 111.37

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m251m502mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 475.7mUSD 500.6mUSD 525.1mUSD 549.0mUSD 572.1mUSD 594.2mUSD 615.2mUSD 634.8mUSD 652.8mUSD 669.1m+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 475.7mUSD 500.6mUSD 525.1mUSD 549.0mUSD 572.1mUSD 594.2mUSD 615.2mUSD 634.8mUSD 652.8mUSD 669.1m+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 388.2mUSD 408.5mUSD 428.5mUSD 448.0mUSD 466.8mUSD 484.9mUSD 502.0mUSD 517.9mUSD 532.7mUSD 546.0m+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -373.7mUSD -412.0mUSD -451.9mUSD -493.1mUSD -535.3mUSD -578.3mUSD -621.8mUSD -665.5mUSD -708.9mUSD -751.8m+8.1%
    Capex, % of revenue27.4%28.7%30.0%31.3%32.6%33.9%35.3%36.6%37.9%39.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.0mUSD -1.7mUSD -1.7mUSD -1.6mUSD -1.6mUSD -1.5mUSD -1.4mUSD -1.3mUSD -1.2mUSD -1.1m-6.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 488.2mUSD 495.4mUSD 500.0mUSD 502.3mUSD 502.0mUSD 499.2mUSD 493.9mUSD 485.9mUSD 475.3mUSD 462.2m-0.6%
    Discount factor0.96240.89130.82550.76460.70810.65580.60740.56260.52100.4826-
    Present valueUSD 469.8mUSD 441.5mUSD 412.8mUSD 384.0mUSD 355.5mUSD 327.4mUSD 300.0mUSD 273.3mUSD 247.7mUSD 223.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 3.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.968Reported 0.952, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.99%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.00%Risk-free + 111bp, the spread for a BBB rating at 2.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 9.7bn65.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.0bn34.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.97%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 31.28

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 462.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 675.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -211.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 463.3m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 8.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 4.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 7.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 2.7bn

    Exit at 17.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 103.02

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 21.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 8.9bn

    Spread between methods: 107%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.97%64.2762.6160.9659.3057.65
    6.97%46.6645.3243.9842.6441.30
    7.97%33.4932.3931.2830.1729.06
    8.97%23.2822.3521.4220.4919.56
    9.97%15.1414.3513.5612.7611.97

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 111.37. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.0%4.1%12.2%
    EBIT margin35.9%34.9%67.0%
    Discount rate-8.0%4.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.