DCF Studio

    FSLR · NMS · Technology

    First Solar, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 122.06

    Market price

    USD 182.05

    Implied upside

    -33.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 32.3% of revenue against depreciation of 9.9%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 122.06-33.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 150.76-17.2%
    Market price
    USD 182.05

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.1bn+12.7%
    EBITUSD 961.0mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+12.7%
    NOPATUSD 889.4mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bn+12.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 479.7mUSD 591.4mUSD 713.8mUSD 842.9mUSD 973.5mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+12.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.8bn+1.9%
    Capex, % of revenue32.3%30.2%28.0%25.9%23.8%21.6%19.5%17.4%15.2%13.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 162.1mUSD -459.0mUSD -502.8mUSD -530.6mUSD -536.6mUSD -515.7mUSD -464.9mUSD -383.4mUSD -273.5mUSD -140.9m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -27.0mUSD -565.1mUSD -477.5mUSD -319.6mUSD -83.8mUSD 231.5mUSD 619.6mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.0bn-
    Discount factor0.94930.85550.77100.69480.62610.56430.50850.45820.41300.3722-
    Present valueUSD -25.6mUSD -483.4mUSD -368.1mUSD -222.1mUSD -52.5mUSD 130.6mUSD 315.1mUSD 488.1mUSD 637.4mUSD 753.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.475Reported 1.709, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.13%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.42%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 19.6bn96.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 655.3m3.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate7.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.97%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 122.06

    89% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -442.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.1bn

    Exit at 8.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 150.76

    92% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 34.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 16.2bn

    Spread between methods: 21%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.97%169.17172.01175.53179.90185.36
    9.97%142.29143.41144.88146.78149.19
    10.97%121.65121.77122.06122.57123.33
    11.97%105.42104.94104.55104.26104.09
    12.97%92.4191.5890.7890.0389.33

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 182.05. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year25.8%10.5%16.4%
    EBIT margin33.1%19.9%26.6%
    Discount rate-11.0%8.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.