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    Fortive Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 34.29

    Market price

    USD 66.84

    Implied upside

    -48.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 34.29-48.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 54.05-19.1%
    Market price
    USD 66.84

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.8bn+3.0%
    EBITUSD 740.2mUSD 766.2mUSD 792.1mUSD 817.9mUSD 843.5mUSD 868.8mUSD 893.8mUSD 918.4mUSD 942.5mUSD 966.1m+3.0%
    NOPATUSD 676.4mUSD 700.1mUSD 723.8mUSD 747.4mUSD 770.7mUSD 793.9mUSD 816.7mUSD 839.2mUSD 861.3mUSD 882.8m+3.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 442.9mUSD 458.4mUSD 473.9mUSD 489.3mUSD 504.7mUSD 519.8mUSD 534.8mUSD 549.5mUSD 563.9mUSD 578.0m+3.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -81.4mUSD -117.6mUSD -156.0mUSD -196.6mUSD -239.4mUSD -284.4mUSD -331.4mUSD -380.4mUSD -431.3mUSD -484.1m+21.9%
    Capex, % of revenue1.8%2.6%3.3%4.0%4.7%5.5%6.2%6.9%7.6%8.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -38.3mUSD -21.7mUSD -21.7mUSD -21.6mUSD -21.4mUSD -21.2mUSD -20.9mUSD -20.6mUSD -20.2mUSD -19.7m-7.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 999.6mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 999.2mUSD 987.8mUSD 973.7mUSD 957.0m-0.5%
    Discount factor0.96040.88590.81720.75380.69530.64130.59160.54570.50330.4643-
    Present valueUSD 960.0mUSD 902.9mUSD 833.6mUSD 767.7mUSD 705.4mUSD 646.6mUSD 591.1mUSD 539.0mUSD 490.1mUSD 444.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.961Reported 0.942, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 6.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 19.9bn85.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.3bn14.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate8.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.41%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 34.29

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 957.0m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -395.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 934.5m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.5bn

    Exit at 19.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 54.05

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 30.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.1bn

    Spread between methods: 45%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.41%49.1848.4147.6346.8646.09
    7.41%41.3340.6940.0639.4338.79
    8.41%35.3534.8234.2933.7633.23
    9.41%30.6530.2029.7529.3028.86
    10.41%26.8526.4726.0925.7125.32

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 66.84. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-10.6%3.4%10.6%
    EBIT margin17.6%16.7%35.8%
    Discount rate-8.4%5.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.