DCF Studio

    G.MI · MIL · Financial Services

    Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 284.56

    Market price

    EUR 45.28

    Implied upside

    +528.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.1% of revenue against depreciation of 0.8%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 284.56+528.4%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 263.97+483.0%
    Market price
    EUR 45.28

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 97.0bnEUR 127.0bnEUR 166.2bnEUR 217.6bnEUR 284.8bn+30.9%
    EBITEUR 9.5bnEUR 12.4bnEUR 16.3bnEUR 21.3bnEUR 27.9bn+30.9%
    NOPATEUR 7.1bnEUR 9.3bnEUR 12.2bnEUR 16.0bnEUR 20.9bn+30.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 786.7mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.3bn+30.9%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.0bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -2.3bnEUR -3.0bn+30.9%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -5.1bnEUR -6.7bnEUR -8.7bnEUR -11.4bnEUR -15.0bn+30.9%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 4.0bnEUR 5.2bn+30.9%
    Discount factor0.96430.89680.83390.77550.7211-
    Present valueEUR 1.7bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.7bn+21.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 13.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.770Reported 0.657, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.21%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.20%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationEUR 68.3bn63.3% of capital
    Total debtEUR 39.6bn36.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 284.56

    94% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 5.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 20.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -6.9bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 14.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 284.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 205.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 218.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -209.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 427.7bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 263.97

    93% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 241.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 174.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 187.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -209.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 396.8bn

    Spread between methods: 8%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.54%360.58367.83377.19389.92408.49
    6.54%311.17312.14313.14314.21315.37
    7.54%283.23283.89284.56285.22285.89
    8.54%262.30262.86263.43263.99264.55
    9.54%245.94246.42246.91247.39247.87

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 45.28. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin9.8%-18.8%-28.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.