DCF Studio

    G24.DE · GER · Communication Services

    Scout24 SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 97.04

    Market price

    EUR 73.75

    Implied upside

    +31.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 97.04+31.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 123.39+67.3%
    Market price
    EUR 73.75

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m245m489mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 735.4mEUR 832.7mEUR 942.8mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bn+13.2%
    EBITEUR 333.8mEUR 377.9mEUR 427.9mEUR 484.4mEUR 548.5m+13.2%
    NOPATEUR 241.0mEUR 272.8mEUR 308.9mEUR 349.8mEUR 396.0m+13.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 59.8mEUR 67.7mEUR 76.7mEUR 86.8mEUR 98.3m+13.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -35.0mEUR -39.6mEUR -44.9mEUR -50.8mEUR -57.5m+13.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 31.9mEUR 36.1mEUR 40.9mEUR 46.3mEUR 52.4m-13.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 297.7mEUR 337.1mEUR 381.6mEUR 432.1mEUR 489.2m+13.2%
    Discount factor0.96760.90590.84810.79400.7434-
    Present valueEUR 288.0mEUR 305.3mEUR 323.6mEUR 343.1mEUR 363.7m+6.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 1.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.726Reported 0.591, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 5.1bn97.2% of capital
    Total debtEUR 149.4m2.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate27.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.81%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 97.04

    77% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 489.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 396.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (21.8% of NOPAT)
    EUR -86.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 309.7m
    ROIC (reported)
    11.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 7.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 5.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 7.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 98.3m
    Equity value
    EUR 7.0bn

    Exit at 15.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 123.39

    82% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 9.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 9.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 98.3m
    Equity value
    EUR 8.9bn

    Spread between methods: 24%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.81%140.69155.40176.40208.87265.94
    5.81%108.84115.79124.79136.91154.20
    6.81%88.9592.5997.04102.61109.80
    7.81%75.3277.3379.6882.4985.91
    8.81%65.4066.5267.7869.2470.94

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 73.75. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year13.2%7.0%-6.3pp
    EBIT margin45.4%34.2%-11.2pp
    Discount rate6.8%8.3%+1.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.