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    General Dynamics Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 353.37

    Market price

    USD 373.46

    Implied upside

    -5.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 353.37-5.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 417.47+11.8%
    Market price
    USD 373.46

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 56.8bnUSD 59.4bnUSD 62.0bnUSD 64.4bnUSD 66.9bnUSD 69.2bnUSD 71.5bnUSD 73.6bnUSD 75.7bnUSD 77.6bn+3.5%
    EBITUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.9bn+3.5%
    NOPATUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.6bn+3.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bn+7.5%
    Capex, % of revenue2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -786.4mUSD -471.9mUSD -465.7mUSD -456.8mUSD -445.2mUSD -430.9mUSD -413.8mUSD -394.1mUSD -371.7mUSD -346.7m-8.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bn+3.5%
    Discount factor0.96720.90490.84660.79200.74100.69320.64860.60680.56770.5311-
    Present valueUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 34.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.528Reported 0.296, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.13%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 13.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 100.9bn91.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.8bn8.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.89%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 353.37

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 7.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 130.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 69.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 103.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 96.3bn

    Exit at 17.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 417.47

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 163.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 86.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 121.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 113.7bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.89%547.35597.81670.56783.32979.29
    5.89%414.17436.02465.10505.14563.06
    6.89%330.64340.58353.36370.07392.43
    7.89%273.41277.68283.17290.27299.51
    8.89%231.80233.12235.00237.57241.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 373.46. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year10.1%4.0%4.6%
    EBIT margin10.7%10.2%10.8%
    Discount rate-6.9%6.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.