DCF Studio

    GEBN.SW · EBS · Industrials

    Geberit AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    CHF 432.16

    Market price

    CHF 539.00

    Implied upside

    -19.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    CHF 432.16-19.8%
    Exit multiple
    CHF 425.58-21.0%
    Market price
    CHF 539.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (CHF). Outflows negative.

    0m307m614mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayCHF
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueCHF 3.1bnCHF 3.0bnCHF 2.9bnCHF 2.9bnCHF 2.8bn-2.3%
    EBITCHF 742.6mCHF 725.5mCHF 708.8mCHF 692.4mCHF 676.5m-2.3%
    NOPATCHF 631.2mCHF 616.7mCHF 602.5mCHF 588.6mCHF 575.0m-2.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationCHF 149.3mCHF 145.9mCHF 142.5mCHF 139.3mCHF 136.1m-2.3%
    Less capital expenditureCHF -173.9mCHF -169.9mCHF -166.0mCHF -162.1mCHF -158.4m-2.3%
    Less increase in working capitalCHF 6.9mCHF 6.8mCHF 6.6mCHF 6.5mCHF 6.3m+2.3%
    Free cashflow to firmCHF 613.6mCHF 599.5mCHF 585.7mCHF 572.2mCHF 559.0m-2.3%
    Discount factor0.97200.91840.86770.81980.7746-
    Present valueCHF 596.4mCHF 550.5mCHF 508.2mCHF 469.1mCHF 433.0m-7.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastCHF 2.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate0.50%CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.029Reported 1.043, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.16%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.05%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationCHF 17.4bn92.8% of capital
    Total debtCHF 1.4bn7.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.84%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareCHF 432.16

    83% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    CHF 559.0m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    CHF 585.9m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (10.0% of NOPAT)
    CHF -58.7m
    Capitalised
    CHF 527.3m
    ROIC (reported)
    25.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CHF 16.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CHF 12.5bn
    Enterprise value
    CHF 15.1bn
    Less net debt
    CHF 769.0m
    Equity value
    CHF 14.3bn

    Exit at 19.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareCHF 425.58

    83% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CHF 15.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CHF 12.3bn
    Enterprise value
    CHF 14.9bn
    Less net debt
    CHF 769.0m
    Equity value
    CHF 14.1bn

    Spread between methods: 2%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (CHF) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.84%665.92818.501084.731667.583964.32
    4.84%463.95527.91619.08759.661004.92
    5.84%355.00388.59432.15490.96574.78
    6.84%286.81306.78331.28362.09402.05
    7.84%240.10252.93268.11286.38308.80

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 539.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-2.3%2.3%+4.6pp
    EBIT margin24.0%29.7%+5.7pp
    Discount rate5.8%5.2%-0.7pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.