DCF Studio

    GEV · NYQ · Industrials

    GE Vernova Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -15.70

    Market price

    USD 862.25

    Implied upside

    -101.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 98.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -15.70-101.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 36.94-95.7%
    Market price
    USD 862.25

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -2653389876-13266949380FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 46.9bnUSD 53.5bnUSD 60.3bnUSD 67.0bnUSD 73.5bnUSD 79.6bnUSD 85.1bnUSD 89.7bnUSD 93.2bnUSD 95.5bn+8.2%
    EBITUSD -879.5mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bn-8.2%
    NOPATUSD -694.8mUSD -792.5mUSD -892.5mUSD -992.2mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.4bn-8.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+8.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.1bn+7.1%
    Capex, % of revenue2.5%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.5bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -659.6m-13.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -742.8m+13.2%
    Discount factor0.95660.87550.80120.73330.67110.61410.56210.51440.47070.4308-
    Present valueUSD -2.5bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -942.3mUSD -730.2mUSD -520.2mUSD -320.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -12.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.039Reported 1.058, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.29%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 228.2bn99.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.2bn0.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.27%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -15.70

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -12.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD -8.1bn
    Equity value
    USD -4.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 36.94

    708% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 2.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -8.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.2bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.27%-18.85-18.85-18.85-18.85-18.85
    8.27%-17.23-17.23-17.23-17.23-17.23
    9.27%-15.70-15.70-15.70-15.70-15.70
    10.27%-14.26-14.26-14.26-14.26-14.26
    11.27%-12.90-12.90-12.90-12.90-12.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 862.25. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    EBIT margin3.6%-1.9%34.0%
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.