DCF Studio

    GIVN.SW · EBS · Basic Materials

    Givaudan SA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    CHF 5389.88

    Market price

    CHF 3249.00

    Implied upside

    +65.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    CHF 5389.88+65.9%
    Exit multiple
    CHF 3284.87+1.1%
    Market price
    CHF 3249.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (CHF). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayCHF
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueCHF 7.6bnCHF 7.7bnCHF 7.8bnCHF 8.0bnCHF 8.1bn+1.6%
    EBITCHF 1.3bnCHF 1.3bnCHF 1.3bnCHF 1.4bnCHF 1.4bn+1.6%
    NOPATCHF 1.1bnCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.2bn+1.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationCHF 380.6mCHF 386.8mCHF 393.1mCHF 399.5mCHF 406.1m+1.6%
    Less capital expenditureCHF -309.1mCHF -314.2mCHF -319.3mCHF -324.6mCHF -329.9m+1.6%
    Less increase in working capitalCHF -10.6mCHF -10.7mCHF -10.9mCHF -11.1mCHF -11.3m+1.6%
    Free cashflow to firmCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.3bnCHF 1.3bn+1.6%
    Discount factor0.97870.93740.89780.85990.8237-
    Present valueCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.1bnCHF 1.1bnCHF 1.1bnCHF 1.0bn-2.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastCHF 5.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate0.50%CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.771Reported 0.658, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity4.74%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.47%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationCHF 30.0bn87.2% of capital
    Total debtCHF 4.4bn12.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.41%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareCHF 5389.88

    90% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    CHF 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    CHF 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.0% of NOPAT)
    CHF -271.8m
    Capitalised
    CHF 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CHF 58.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CHF 48.1bn
    Enterprise value
    CHF 53.7bn
    Less net debt
    CHF 3.7bn
    Equity value
    CHF 50.0bn

    Exit at 19.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareCHF 3284.87

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CHF 34.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CHF 28.6bn
    Enterprise value
    CHF 34.1bn
    Less net debt
    CHF 3.7bn
    Equity value
    CHF 30.5bn

    Spread between methods: 49%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (CHF) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.41%13206.6728022.55———
    3.41%6117.957891.5011617.9124519.31—
    4.41%3907.914495.905389.916916.5310123.56
    5.41%2829.133093.513447.293946.204704.51
    6.41%2189.822327.092498.382718.673013.25

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 3249.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year1.6%-7.9%-9.5pp
    EBIT margin17.2%10.1%-7.1pp
    Discount rate4.4%5.6%+1.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.