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    GLW · NYQ · Technology

    Corning Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 28.76

    Market price

    USD 123.20

    Implied upside

    -76.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 31.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 28.76-76.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 107.99-12.3%
    Market price
    USD 123.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 19.4bnUSD 23.5bnUSD 28.0bnUSD 32.6bnUSD 37.2bnUSD 41.6bnUSD 45.5bnUSD 48.8bnUSD 51.1bnUSD 52.4bn+11.7%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bn+11.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bn+11.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bn+11.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -5.4bnUSD -5.8bnUSD -6.0bn+14.0%
    Capex, % of revenue9.5%9.7%9.9%10.1%10.4%10.6%10.8%11.0%11.2%11.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -889.0mUSD -961.8mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -924.0mUSD -763.3mUSD -551.8mUSD -299.3m-11.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 765.1mUSD 990.1mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bn+16.9%
    Discount factor0.95640.87490.80030.73210.66970.61260.56040.51260.46890.4290-
    Present valueUSD 731.7mUSD 866.2mUSD 976.9mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 11.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.151Reported 1.225, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.76%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 106.1bn91.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.4bn8.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.32%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 28.76

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.3bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 50.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 25.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 107.99

    89% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 210.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 90.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 101.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 94.1bn

    Spread between methods: 116%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.32%43.4342.6841.9341.1840.43
    8.32%35.7635.1334.5133.8933.27
    9.32%29.8129.2928.7628.2427.71
    10.32%25.0824.6424.1923.7423.29
    11.32%21.2520.8620.4720.0919.70

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 123.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.3%12.9%30.8%
    EBIT margin14.6%10.1%33.4%
    Discount rate-9.3%4.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.