DCF Studio

    GM · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    General Motors Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -32.87

    Market price

    USD 89.94

    Implied upside

    -136.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 13.8% of revenue against depreciation of 7.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -32.87-136.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 42.36-52.9%
    Market price
    USD 89.94

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -5bn0bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 186.3bnUSD 189.9bnUSD 193.7bnUSD 197.8bnUSD 202.0bnUSD 206.5bnUSD 211.2bnUSD 216.2bnUSD 221.4bnUSD 227.0bn+2.2%
    EBITUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bn+2.2%
    NOPATUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.0bn+2.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 14.5bnUSD 14.8bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 16.2bn+2.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -25.8bnUSD -25.2bnUSD -24.6bnUSD -24.0bnUSD -23.4bnUSD -22.7bnUSD -22.0bnUSD -21.3bnUSD -20.6bnUSD -19.8bn-2.9%
    Capex, % of revenue13.8%13.3%12.7%12.1%11.6%11.0%10.4%9.9%9.3%8.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -319.4mUSD -878.6mUSD -928.5mUSD -980.7mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bn+17.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD 56.1mUSD 1.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 5.1bn-
    Discount factor0.96700.90410.84530.79040.73900.69100.64610.60410.56480.5281-
    Present valueUSD -4.4bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -779.8mUSD 38.7mUSD 786.9mUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -6.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.280Reported 1.418, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.31%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 4.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 0.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 76.4bn36.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 131.3bn63.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.95%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -32.87

    109% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 10.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (36.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -3.6bn
    Capitalised
    USD 6.4bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 147.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 77.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 71.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 103.6bn
    Equity value
    USD -32.0bn

    Exit at 10.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 42.36

    104% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 286.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 151.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 144.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 103.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 41.2bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.95%22.9420.0917.2414.3911.53
    5.95%-7.83-10.07-12.31-14.55-16.79
    6.95%-29.24-31.06-32.87-34.68-36.50
    7.95%-44.87-46.37-47.87-49.37-50.87
    8.95%-56.68-57.94-59.20-60.46-61.72

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 89.94. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.7%2.1%16.3%
    EBIT margin6.8%5.1%9.7%
    Discount rate-7.0%4.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.