DCF Studio

    GPC · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Genuine Parts Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 142.20

    Market price

    USD 124.61

    Implied upside

    +14.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 142.20+14.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 159.96+28.4%
    Market price
    USD 124.61

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 25.5bnUSD 26.5bnUSD 27.4bnUSD 28.3bnUSD 29.2bnUSD 30.1bnUSD 31.0bnUSD 31.8bnUSD 32.7bnUSD 33.5bn+3.1%
    EBITUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+3.1%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+3.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 449.7mUSD 465.9mUSD 482.0mUSD 498.0mUSD 513.9mUSD 529.6mUSD 545.0mUSD 560.2mUSD 574.9mUSD 589.3m+3.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -517.5mUSD -553.7mUSD -591.0mUSD -629.3mUSD -668.7mUSD -709.0mUSD -750.1mUSD -792.0mUSD -834.5mUSD -877.5m+6.0%
    Capex, % of revenue2.0%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -84.2mUSD -62.7mUSD -62.4mUSD -62.0mUSD -61.4mUSD -60.6mUSD -59.7mUSD -58.5mUSD -57.1mUSD -55.6m-4.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+1.9%
    Discount factor0.96630.90230.84250.78670.73460.68590.64050.59810.55840.5214-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 991.1mUSD 942.7mUSD 895.2mUSD 848.9mUSD 803.8mUSD 759.9mUSD 717.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.772Reported 0.659, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.16%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.2bn72.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.5bn27.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.09%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 142.20

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -288.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 19.8bn

    Exit at 13.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 159.96

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 36.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 28.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 22.3bn

    Spread between methods: 12%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.09%227.06249.89281.97329.88408.54
    6.09%168.01178.69192.64211.44237.89
    7.09%130.13135.47142.20150.82162.11
    8.09%103.78106.46109.80113.97119.25
    9.09%84.4185.6587.2289.1991.67

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 124.61. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.2%3.3%2.0%
    EBIT margin7.6%6.5%5.9%
    Discount rate-7.1%7.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.