DCF Studio

    GPN · NYQ · Industrials

    Global Payments Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 193.06

    Market price

    USD 99.63

    Implied upside

    +93.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 193.06+93.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 247.86+148.8%
    Market price
    USD 99.63

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 11.6bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 14.4bnUSD 14.9bnUSD 15.4bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 16.2bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -939.7mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.6bn+11.7%
    Capex, % of revenue8.1%9.0%9.8%10.7%11.5%12.3%13.2%14.0%14.9%15.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -297.9mUSD -46.6mUSD -45.8mUSD -44.7mUSD -43.2mUSD -41.4mUSD -39.2mUSD -36.7mUSD -33.8mUSD -30.6m-22.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bn+1.3%
    Discount factor0.96700.90410.84540.79040.73910.69110.64620.60420.56490.5282-
    Present valueUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 24.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.877Reported 0.816, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.60%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 26.4bn54.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 21.9bn45.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.95%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 193.06

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (36.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.6bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.9bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 67.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 35.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 60.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 46.7bn

    Exit at 13.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 247.86

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 92.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 48.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 73.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 59.9bn

    Spread between methods: 25%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.95%303.24298.14293.03287.93282.82
    5.95%242.68238.67234.67230.66226.65
    6.95%199.55196.30193.06189.82186.58
    7.95%167.26164.58161.90159.22156.54
    8.95%142.19139.94137.68135.43133.18

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 99.63. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-5.0%7.7%1.8%
    EBIT margin22.0%19.9%6.2%
    Discount rate-6.9%11.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.