DCF Studio

    GRF.MC · MCE · Healthcare

    Grifols, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 10.10

    Market price

    EUR 9.54

    Implied upside

    +5.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 10.10+5.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 13.99+46.6%
    Market price
    EUR 9.54

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 8.1bnEUR 8.7bnEUR 9.3bnEUR 10.0bnEUR 10.8bn+7.5%
    EBITEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bn+7.5%
    NOPATEUR 843.3mEUR 906.2mEUR 973.8mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bn+7.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 517.4mEUR 556.0mEUR 597.4mEUR 642.0mEUR 689.8m+7.5%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -443.9mEUR -477.0mEUR -512.6mEUR -550.8mEUR -591.8m+7.5%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -55.7mEUR -59.9mEUR -64.4mEUR -69.2mEUR -74.3m+7.5%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 861.1mEUR 925.3mEUR 994.3mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bn+7.5%
    Discount factor0.96530.89950.83810.78100.7277-
    Present valueEUR 831.2mEUR 832.2mEUR 833.3mEUR 834.4mEUR 835.4m+0.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 4.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.127Reported 1.190, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.53%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.85%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 6.5bn40.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 9.6bn59.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate23.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.32%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 10.10

    73% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -384.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 740.3m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 15.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 11.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 15.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 8.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR 6.9bn

    Exit at 9.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 13.99

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 19.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 14.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 18.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 8.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR 9.5bn

    Spread between methods: 32%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.32%20.2121.2422.6224.5427.45
    6.32%13.6513.8013.9714.1614.38
    7.32%9.9310.0210.1010.1810.26
    8.32%7.197.267.337.407.47
    9.32%5.055.105.165.225.28

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 9.54. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.5%6.8%-0.6pp
    EBIT margin13.7%13.3%-0.3pp
    Discount rate7.3%7.5%+0.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.