DCF Studio

    GTK.NZ · NZE · Technology

    Gentrack Group Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    NZD 1.91

    Market price

    NZD 4.21

    Implied upside

    -54.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.80% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 5.45% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: NZD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    NZD 1.91-54.7%
    Exit multiple
    NZD 3.87-8.1%
    Market price
    NZD 4.21

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (NZD). Outflows negative.

    0m5m10mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayNZD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueNZD 232.9mNZD 259.8mNZD 286.9mNZD 313.5mNZD 339.1mNZD 362.9mNZD 384.3mNZD 402.6mNZD 417.2mNZD 427.6m+7.0%
    EBITNZD 12.5mNZD 13.9mNZD 15.3mNZD 16.8mNZD 18.1mNZD 19.4mNZD 20.6mNZD 21.5mNZD 22.3mNZD 22.9m+7.0%
    NOPATNZD 9.0mNZD 10.0mNZD 11.1mNZD 12.1mNZD 13.1mNZD 14.0mNZD 14.8mNZD 15.5mNZD 16.1mNZD 16.5m+7.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationNZD 12.7mNZD 14.2mNZD 15.6mNZD 17.1mNZD 18.5mNZD 19.8mNZD 20.9mNZD 21.9mNZD 22.7mNZD 23.3m+7.0%
    Less capital expenditureNZD -12.7mNZD -14.5mNZD -16.3mNZD -18.2mNZD -20.1mNZD -22.0mNZD -23.7mNZD -25.4mNZD -26.8mNZD -28.0m+9.2%
    Capex, % of revenue5.5%5.6%5.7%5.8%5.9%6.1%6.2%6.3%6.4%6.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalNZD -351.7kNZD -3.5mNZD -3.5mNZD -3.5mNZD -3.3mNZD -3.1mNZD -2.8mNZD -2.4mNZD -1.9mNZD -1.4m+16.2%
    Free cashflow to firmNZD 8.6mNZD 6.2mNZD 6.8mNZD 7.5mNZD 8.1mNZD 8.7mNZD 9.2mNZD 9.7mNZD 10.1mNZD 10.5m+2.2%
    Discount factor0.95850.88050.80890.74310.68270.62720.57620.52930.48620.4467-
    Present valueNZD 8.3mNZD 5.4mNZD 5.5mNZD 5.5mNZD 5.5mNZD 5.4mNZD 5.3mNZD 5.1mNZD 4.9mNZD 4.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastNZD 55.8m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.50%NZD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.072Reported 1.108, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.04%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.90%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 68.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.6%.
    Market capitalisationNZD 473.5m96.7% of capital
    Total debtNZD 16.3m3.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate28.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.85%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareNZD 1.91

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    NZD 10.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    NZD 16.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.2% of NOPAT)
    NZD -4.7m
    Capitalised
    NZD 11.8m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    NZD 190.7m
    Terminal value, discounted
    NZD 85.2m
    Enterprise value
    NZD 141.0m
    Less net debt
    NZD -68.5m
    Equity value
    NZD 209.5m

    Exit at 14.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareNZD 3.87

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    NZD 673.2m
    Terminal value, discounted
    NZD 300.7m
    Enterprise value
    NZD 356.5m
    Less net debt
    NZD -68.5m
    Equity value
    NZD 425.0m

    Spread between methods: 68%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (NZD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.85%2.392.362.342.312.29
    7.85%2.142.122.092.072.05
    8.85%1.941.921.911.891.87
    9.85%1.791.771.761.741.73
    10.85%1.671.651.641.631.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 4.21. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year22.2%6.4%21.5%
    EBIT margin8.7%5.4%13.9%
    Discount rate-8.9%4.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.