DCF Studio

    GWW · NYQ · Industrials

    W.W. Grainger, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 544.02

    Market price

    USD 1266.61

    Implied upside

    -57.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 2.8% of revenue against depreciation of 1.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.5x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 544.02-57.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 1116.31-11.9%
    Market price
    USD 1266.61

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 19.0bnUSD 20.0bnUSD 21.1bnUSD 22.3bnUSD 23.6bn+5.6%
    EBITUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bn+5.6%
    NOPATUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bn+5.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 257.8mUSD 272.3mUSD 287.6mUSD 303.7mUSD 320.8m+5.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -537.5mUSD -567.7mUSD -599.6mUSD -633.3mUSD -668.9m+5.6%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -403.3mUSD -425.9mUSD -449.9mUSD -475.1mUSD -501.8m+5.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+5.6%
    Discount factor0.95210.86300.78230.70920.6428-
    Present valueUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bn-4.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.023Reported 1.034, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.62%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 59.7bn95.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.9bn4.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.32%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 544.02

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (7.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -195.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    35.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 28.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 1116.31

    88% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 76.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 49.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 55.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 53.6bn

    Spread between methods: 69%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.32%672.45711.69757.58811.99877.57
    9.32%575.61603.31634.99671.60714.40
    10.32%501.00521.25544.03569.84599.36
    11.32%441.82457.04473.92492.77513.97
    12.32%393.78405.46418.28432.43448.13

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1266.61. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year5.6%30.1%+24.5pp
    EBIT margin14.8%31.3%+16.4pp
    Discount rate10.3%6.1%-4.2pp
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.