DCF Studio

    HAL · NYQ · Energy

    Halliburton Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 57.31

    Market price

    USD 34.61

    Implied upside

    +65.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 57.31+65.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 47.79+38.1%
    Market price
    USD 34.61

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 22.5bnUSD 23.7bnUSD 24.8bnUSD 25.9bnUSD 27.0bnUSD 28.0bnUSD 29.0bnUSD 29.9bnUSD 30.7bnUSD 31.5bn+3.8%
    EBITUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bn+3.8%
    NOPATUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bn+5.5%
    Capex, % of revenue5.7%5.8%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.2%6.3%6.4%6.5%6.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -75.5mUSD -247.9mUSD -244.0mUSD -238.3mUSD -230.7mUSD -221.3mUSD -210.1mUSD -197.1mUSD -182.4mUSD -166.0m+9.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+2.6%
    Discount factor0.96460.89750.83510.77700.72290.67260.62580.58230.54180.5041-
    Present valueUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 19.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.832Reported 0.749, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.41%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 8.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 28.6bn77.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.1bn22.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.48%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 57.31

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -611.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    16.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 69.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 35.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 54.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 48.9bn

    Exit at 8.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 47.79

    58% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 53.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 46.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 40.8bn

    Spread between methods: 18%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.48%84.5391.27100.40113.37133.08
    6.48%65.8069.1573.4279.0386.63
    7.48%53.3855.1357.3160.0463.54
    8.48%44.5545.4746.6047.9949.73
    9.48%37.9538.4138.9739.6740.54

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 34.61. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.0%3.6%-2.0%
    EBIT margin17.7%16.0%10.6%
    Discount rate-7.5%10.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.