DCF Studio

    HAS · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Hasbro, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 104.55

    Market price

    USD 118.36

    Implied upside

    -11.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 104.55-11.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 126.41+6.8%
    Market price
    USD 118.36

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m473m947mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.9bn+4.8%
    EBITUSD 661.9mUSD 709.6mUSD 756.6mUSD 802.2mUSD 845.8mUSD 886.8mUSD 924.6mUSD 958.6mUSD 988.2mUSD 1.0bn+4.8%
    NOPATUSD 522.9mUSD 560.6mUSD 597.7mUSD 633.7mUSD 668.2mUSD 700.6mUSD 730.5mUSD 757.3mUSD 780.7mUSD 800.2m+4.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 457.4mUSD 490.3mUSD 522.8mUSD 554.3mUSD 584.4mUSD 612.8mUSD 638.9mUSD 662.4mUSD 682.8mUSD 699.9m+4.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -208.6mUSD -238.7mUSD -270.6mUSD -304.1mUSD -338.6mUSD -374.0mUSD -409.6mUSD -445.1mUSD -479.9mUSD -513.5m+10.5%
    Capex, % of revenue4.0%4.3%4.6%4.9%5.1%5.4%5.7%5.9%6.2%6.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -96.4mUSD -77.3mUSD -76.1mUSD -73.9mUSD -70.7mUSD -66.5mUSD -61.3mUSD -55.1mUSD -48.0mUSD -40.1m-9.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 675.3mUSD 734.9mUSD 773.7mUSD 810.0mUSD 843.2mUSD 872.9mUSD 898.4mUSD 919.5mUSD 935.6mUSD 946.6m+3.8%
    Discount factor0.96750.90560.84770.79340.74270.69510.65070.60900.57010.5336-
    Present valueUSD 653.3mUSD 665.5mUSD 655.8mUSD 642.7mUSD 626.2mUSD 606.8mUSD 584.6mUSD 560.0mUSD 533.4mUSD 505.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.573Reported 0.362, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.32%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 6.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 16.6bn83.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.3bn16.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.83%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 104.55

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 946.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -345.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 874.9m
    ROIC (reported)
    8.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 17.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.7bn

    Exit at 15.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 126.41

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.7bn

    Spread between methods: 19%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.83%173.63186.26204.86234.31286.80
    5.83%129.58133.82139.71148.11160.64
    6.83%102.05103.05104.55106.75109.96
    7.83%83.2182.8082.5282.4282.54
    8.83%69.5268.4867.4366.3965.34

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 118.36. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-7.1%5.3%6.7%
    EBIT margin22.5%12.8%15.0%
    Discount rate-6.8%6.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.