DCF Studio

    HCA · NYQ · Healthcare

    HCA Healthcare, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 482.47

    Market price

    USD 467.73

    Implied upside

    +3.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 7.0% of revenue against depreciation of 4.8%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 482.47+3.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 445.67-4.7%
    Market price
    USD 467.73

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn10bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 79.2bnUSD 81.7bnUSD 84.2bnUSD 86.7bnUSD 89.2bnUSD 91.7bnUSD 94.3bnUSD 96.8bnUSD 99.3bnUSD 101.8bn+2.8%
    EBITUSD 12.0bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 14.3bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.4bn+2.8%
    NOPATUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.2bn+2.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bn+2.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -5.5bnUSD -5.7bnUSD -5.8bnUSD -5.8bnUSD -5.9bnUSD -6.0bnUSD -6.1bnUSD -6.2bnUSD -6.3bnUSD -6.3bn+1.5%
    Capex, % of revenue7.0%6.9%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%6.5%6.4%6.3%6.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -405.9mUSD -285.0mUSD -286.3mUSD -287.2mUSD -287.7mUSD -287.7mUSD -287.2mUSD -286.2mUSD -284.8mUSD -282.8m-3.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.4bn+4.0%
    Discount factor0.96330.89380.82930.76950.71400.66250.61470.57040.52930.4911-
    Present valueUSD 7.0bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.1bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 61.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.068Reported 1.101, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.41%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 5.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 97.7bn66.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 48.7bn33.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.77%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 482.47

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 10.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 12.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.5bn
    Capitalised
    USD 10.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    20.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 208.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 102.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 163.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 47.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 115.5bn

    Exit at 9.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 445.67

    60% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 190.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 93.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 154.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 47.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 106.7bn

    Spread between methods: 8%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.77%745.27812.35900.911022.581199.20
    6.77%562.14597.83642.58700.00775.90
    7.77%437.77457.93482.46512.74550.78
    8.77%347.89359.58373.58390.47411.08
    9.77%279.98286.73294.77304.39315.94

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 467.73. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.9%3.0%2.7%
    EBIT margin15.8%15.2%14.8%
    Discount rate-7.8%7.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.