DCF Studio

    HEIA.AS · AMS · Consumer Defensive

    Heineken N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 57.93

    Market price

    EUR 70.74

    Implied upside

    -18.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 57.93-18.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 65.06-8.0%
    Market price
    EUR 70.74

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 28.8bnEUR 28.8bnEUR 28.8bnEUR 28.8bnEUR 28.8bn+0.0%
    EBITEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bn+0.0%
    NOPATEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bn+0.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bn+0.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.3bnEUR -2.3bnEUR -2.3bnEUR -2.3bnEUR -2.3bn+0.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -4.5mEUR -4.5mEUR -4.5mEUR -4.5mEUR -4.5m+0.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.7bn+0.0%
    Discount factor0.96710.90440.84580.79100.7397-
    Present valueEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.0bn-6.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 11.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.706Reported 0.561, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.79%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 39.2bn67.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 19.3bn33.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.93%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 57.93

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.0% of NOPAT)
    EUR -931.5m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 48.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 35.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 46.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 14.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 32.3bn

    Exit at 9.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 65.06

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 53.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 39.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 50.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 14.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 36.2bn

    Spread between methods: 12%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.93%99.82108.91121.64140.83173.26
    5.93%72.3275.9380.5386.6095.08
    6.93%54.9356.3057.9359.9062.39
    7.93%42.9443.2743.6143.9844.38
    8.93%35.0635.2735.4735.6835.88

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 70.74. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year0.0%4.1%+4.1pp
    EBIT margin12.1%14.1%+2.1pp
    Discount rate6.9%6.3%-0.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.