HIG · NYQ · Financial Services
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 332.01
Market price
USD 135.52
Implied upside
+145.0%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 20.6%
- Payout
- 19%
- Cost of equity
- 7.61%
- Return on equity by the final year
- 20.0%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 18.6bn | USD 21.5bn | USD 24.5bn | USD 27.6bn | USD 30.6bn | USD 33.5bn | USD 36.3bn | USD 38.8bn | USD 40.8bn | USD 42.4bn |
| Return on equity | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 20.3% | 20.2% | 20.2% | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.0% |
| Excess return | USD 2.4bn | USD 2.8bn | USD 3.1bn | USD 3.5bn | USD 3.9bn | USD 4.2bn | USD 4.6bn | USD 4.9bn | USD 5.1bn | USD 5.3bn |
| Present value | USD 2.2bn | USD 2.4bn | USD 2.5bn | USD 2.6bn | USD 2.7bn | USD 2.7bn | USD 2.7bn | USD 2.7bn | USD 2.6bn | USD 2.5bn |
| Book equity | USD 18.6bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 25.8bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 50.7bn |
| Equity value | USD 95.1bn |
| Per share | USD 332.01 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.642 | Reported 0.465, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.61% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.