DCF Studio

    HLT · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 133.93

    Market price

    USD 364.71

    Implied upside

    -63.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 32.5x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 133.93-63.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 219.48-39.8%
    Market price
    USD 364.71

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.0bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 15.2bnUSD 16.3bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 19.2bnUSD 20.0bnUSD 20.6bnUSD 21.1bn+5.6%
    EBITUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bn+5.6%
    NOPATUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bn+5.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 196.7mUSD 213.7mUSD 230.6mUSD 247.0mUSD 262.6mUSD 277.3mUSD 290.6mUSD 302.3mUSD 312.2mUSD 320.0m+5.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -223.5mUSD -266.6mUSD -313.2mUSD -363.0mUSD -415.2mUSD -469.2mUSD -524.0mUSD -578.8mUSD -632.4mUSD -683.8m+13.2%
    Capex, % of revenue1.7%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.1%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -101.4mUSD -120.2mUSD -119.0mUSD -115.9mUSD -110.7mUSD -103.5mUSD -94.2mUSD -82.9mUSD -69.9mUSD -55.2m-6.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bn+4.8%
    Discount factor0.95940.88300.81260.74790.68840.63360.58310.53670.49390.4546-
    Present valueUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 18.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.048Reported 1.071, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.33%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 81.1bn86.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 13.1bn13.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.65%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 133.93

    58% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -363.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    25.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 56.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 25.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 44.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 31.9bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 219.48

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 100.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 45.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 64.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 52.2bn

    Spread between methods: 48%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.65%193.54206.84223.51244.95273.42
    7.65%152.82160.59170.01181.59196.13
    8.65%123.56128.31133.93140.67148.84
    9.65%101.54104.51107.98112.07116.92
    10.65%84.3886.2588.4290.9593.92

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 364.71. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year11.1%5.8%16.0%
    EBIT margin23.9%22.4%49.8%
    Discount rate-8.7%5.2%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.