DCF Studio

    HSIC · NMS · Healthcare

    Henry Schein, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 77.55

    Market price

    USD 86.62

    Implied upside

    -10.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 77.55-10.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 87.49+1.0%
    Market price
    USD 86.62

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m375m750mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.9bnUSD 14.4bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.1bnUSD 17.6bnUSD 18.0bnUSD 18.5bn+3.2%
    EBITUSD 835.1mUSD 868.5mUSD 901.6mUSD 934.3mUSD 966.4mUSD 997.8mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+3.2%
    NOPATUSD 659.7mUSD 686.1mUSD 712.3mUSD 738.1mUSD 763.5mUSD 788.3mUSD 812.4mUSD 835.8mUSD 858.2mUSD 879.7m+3.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 262.7mUSD 273.2mUSD 283.6mUSD 293.9mUSD 304.0mUSD 313.9mUSD 323.5mUSD 332.8mUSD 341.8mUSD 350.3m+3.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -189.0mUSD -208.9mUSD -229.6mUSD -251.2mUSD -273.6mUSD -296.7mUSD -320.4mUSD -344.6mUSD -369.3mUSD -394.3m+8.5%
    Capex, % of revenue1.4%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -129.2mUSD -105.2mUSD -104.3mUSD -102.9mUSD -101.1mUSD -98.9mUSD -96.2mUSD -93.1mUSD -89.5mUSD -85.5m-4.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 604.3mUSD 645.3mUSD 662.0mUSD 677.8mUSD 692.7mUSD 706.6mUSD 719.3mUSD 730.9mUSD 741.1mUSD 750.1m+2.4%
    Discount factor0.96400.89590.83260.77370.71910.66820.62100.57710.53630.4984-
    Present valueUSD 582.5mUSD 578.1mUSD 551.2mUSD 524.5mUSD 498.1mUSD 472.2mUSD 446.7mUSD 421.8mUSD 397.5mUSD 373.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.904Reported 0.856, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.72%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 5.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 9.7bn73.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.4bn26.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.60%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 77.55

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 750.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -277.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 786.6m
    ROIC (reported)
    9.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 15.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 12.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.4bn

    Exit at 12.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 87.49

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.6bn

    Spread between methods: 12%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.60%128.06134.58143.60156.53176.17
    6.60%97.2399.47102.52106.73112.66
    7.60%76.5676.9277.5578.5480.04
    8.60%61.7561.2260.7660.4160.17
    9.60%50.6549.7048.7547.8046.85

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 86.62. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.4%3.4%4.6%
    EBIT margin6.9%6.0%6.6%
    Discount rate-7.6%7.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.