DCF Studio

    HST · NMS · Real Estate

    Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 9.21

    Market price

    USD 25.57

    Implied upside

    -64.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 9.21-64.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 19.43-24.0%
    Market price
    USD 25.57

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bn+1.5%
    EBITUSD 871.6mUSD 876.1mUSD 882.9mUSD 891.8mUSD 903.1mUSD 916.8mUSD 932.9mUSD 951.6mUSD 973.0mUSD 997.4m+1.5%
    NOPATUSD 834.7mUSD 839.1mUSD 845.6mUSD 854.1mUSD 864.9mUSD 878.0mUSD 893.4mUSD 911.4mUSD 931.9mUSD 955.2m+1.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 817.8mUSD 822.0mUSD 828.4mUSD 836.8mUSD 847.4mUSD 860.2mUSD 875.3mUSD 892.8mUSD 913.0mUSD 935.8m+1.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -656.6mUSD -705.5mUSD -756.7mUSD -810.7mUSD -867.8mUSD -928.4mUSD -993.1mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bn+7.1%
    Capex, % of revenue10.7%11.4%12.1%12.9%13.6%14.3%15.1%15.8%16.5%17.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 9.9mUSD 6.3mUSD 9.3mUSD 12.4mUSD 15.6mUSD 18.9mUSD 22.3mUSD 25.8mUSD 29.6mUSD 33.6m-14.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.0bnUSD 961.9mUSD 926.5mUSD 892.6mUSD 860.1mUSD 828.6mUSD 797.9mUSD 767.6mUSD 737.7mUSD 707.6m-3.8%
    Discount factor0.96010.88490.81560.75180.69290.63870.58870.54260.50020.4610-
    Present valueUSD 965.6mUSD 851.2mUSD 755.7mUSD 671.1mUSD 596.0mUSD 529.2mUSD 469.7mUSD 416.5mUSD 368.9mUSD 326.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.072Reported 1.108, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.43%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.8bn75.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.6bn24.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate4.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.49%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 9.21

    47% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 707.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 955.2m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -281.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 674.0m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 11.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 6.4bn

    Exit at 13.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 19.43

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.5bn

    Spread between methods: 71%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.49%14.4114.1713.9413.7213.52
    7.49%11.6411.4211.2010.9810.76
    8.49%9.589.409.219.038.84
    9.49%7.957.797.637.487.32
    10.49%6.626.496.356.226.08

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 25.57. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.6%1.4%9.6%
    EBIT margin15.4%14.1%29.4%
    Discount rate-8.5%4.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.