DCF Studio

    HUBB · NYQ · Industrials

    Hubbell Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 352.98

    Market price

    USD 433.74

    Implied upside

    -18.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 352.98-18.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 530.79+22.4%
    Market price
    USD 433.74

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 12.4bn+6.7%
    EBITUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+6.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+6.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 226.3mUSD 251.3mUSD 276.3mUSD 300.8mUSD 324.4mUSD 346.3mUSD 366.0mUSD 382.9mUSD 396.6mUSD 406.5m+6.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -199.9mUSD -244.8mUSD -294.3mUSD -347.8mUSD -404.5mUSD -463.4mUSD -523.0mUSD -582.1mUSD -638.9mUSD -691.8m+14.8%
    Capex, % of revenue2.9%3.2%3.5%3.8%4.1%4.4%4.7%5.0%5.3%5.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -226.9mUSD -160.8mUSD -161.3mUSD -158.4mUSD -151.8mUSD -141.4mUSD -127.2mUSD -109.3mUSD -88.1mUSD -64.0m-13.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 804.8mUSD 961.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn+6.8%
    Discount factor0.96130.88820.82080.75840.70080.64760.59840.55290.51090.4721-
    Present valueUSD 773.6mUSD 854.2mUSD 860.0mUSD 857.7mUSD 847.2mUSD 828.7mUSD 802.8mUSD 770.0mUSD 731.3mUSD 687.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.890Reported 0.836, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.66%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 18.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 22.9bn90.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.5bn9.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.22%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 352.98

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -285.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 27.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.9bn

    Exit at 17.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 530.79

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 47.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 30.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 28.4bn

    Spread between methods: 40%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.22%503.57531.79568.27616.88684.29
    7.22%404.97419.55437.72460.76490.65
    8.22%335.98343.61352.98364.57379.10
    9.22%285.07288.89293.59299.40306.59
    10.22%246.01247.62249.70252.35255.69

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 433.74. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.7%7.8%10.3%
    EBIT margin20.7%18.4%22.0%
    Discount rate-8.2%7.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.