DCF Studio

    HWM · NYQ · Industrials

    Howmet Aerospace Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 48.89

    Market price

    USD 229.67

    Implied upside

    -78.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Current EV/EBITDA of 39.0x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 48.89-78.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 127.32-44.6%
    Market price
    USD 229.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.4bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 15.5bn+13.4%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bn+13.4%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bn+13.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 372.7mUSD 422.5mUSD 479.0mUSD 543.0mUSD 615.6m+13.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -386.3mUSD -437.9mUSD -496.5mUSD -562.9mUSD -638.2m+13.4%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -371.5mUSD -421.2mUSD -477.5mUSD -541.4mUSD -613.8m+13.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bn+13.4%
    Discount factor0.94940.85580.77140.69530.6268-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+2.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.125Reported 1.186, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.18%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 91.6bn96.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.2bn3.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.94%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 48.89

    74% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -436.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 22.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 19.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 127.32

    89% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 77.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 48.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 54.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 51.7bn

    Spread between methods: 89%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.94%62.4464.4266.6869.3072.37
    9.94%53.8755.1556.5858.2060.04
    10.94%47.1447.9848.8949.9051.04
    11.94%41.7242.2642.8443.4844.17
    12.94%37.2637.6037.9738.3538.77

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 229.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year13.4%59.2%+45.8pp
    EBIT margin20.9%84.4%+63.4pp
    Discount rate10.9%4.5%-6.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.