DCF Studio

    IDXX · NMS · Healthcare

    IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 195.13

    Market price

    USD 671.64

    Implied upside

    -70.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 35.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 195.13-70.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 333.59-50.3%
    Market price
    USD 671.64

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.7bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.8bn+5.7%
    EBITUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+5.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+5.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 156.0mUSD 169.8mUSD 183.4mUSD 196.7mUSD 209.5mUSD 221.3mUSD 232.1mUSD 241.6mUSD 249.6mUSD 255.8m+5.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -176.9mUSD -199.2mUSD -222.4mUSD -246.2mUSD -270.3mUSD -294.2mUSD -317.6mUSD -340.0mUSD -360.9mUSD -379.9m+8.9%
    Capex, % of revenue3.7%3.9%4.0%4.1%4.2%4.4%4.5%4.6%4.8%4.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -83.7mUSD -80.8mUSD -80.1mUSD -78.0mUSD -74.5mUSD -69.6mUSD -63.3mUSD -55.6mUSD -46.6mUSD -36.6m-8.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn+5.7%
    Discount factor0.95120.86060.77860.70450.63740.57670.52170.47210.42710.3864-
    Present valueUSD 954.4mUSD 943.0mUSD 921.9mUSD 894.8mUSD 862.2mUSD 824.6mUSD 782.8mUSD 737.6mUSD 689.8mUSD 640.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.359Reported 1.536, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.64%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 35.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 52.9bn98.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 976.1m1.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.53%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 195.13

    50% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (6.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -124.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    36.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 21.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 796.0m
    Equity value
    USD 15.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 333.59

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 50.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 27.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 796.0m
    Equity value
    USD 27.0bn

    Spread between methods: 52%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.53%245.56254.27264.52276.75291.55
    9.53%212.51218.23224.85232.58241.69
    10.53%186.88190.73195.13200.19206.06
    11.53%166.44169.07172.05175.44179.33
    12.53%149.77151.58153.61155.92158.54

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 671.64. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.5%6.1%22.1%
    Discount rate-10.5%5.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.