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    IEX · NYQ · Industrials

    IDEX Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 140.56

    Market price

    USD 236.52

    Implied upside

    -40.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 20.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 140.56-40.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 233.37-1.3%
    Market price
    USD 236.52

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m419m837mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.4bn+4.2%
    EBITUSD 827.1mUSD 876.4mUSD 924.8mUSD 971.9mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+4.2%
    NOPATUSD 653.4mUSD 692.4mUSD 730.6mUSD 767.8mUSD 803.6mUSD 837.6mUSD 869.4mUSD 898.6mUSD 925.0mUSD 948.1m+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 183.9mUSD 194.8mUSD 205.6mUSD 216.0mUSD 226.1mUSD 235.7mUSD 244.6mUSD 252.8mUSD 260.3mUSD 266.8m+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -81.1mUSD -104.8mUSD -130.5mUSD -158.1mUSD -187.4mUSD -218.1mUSD -250.1mUSD -283.0mUSD -316.5mUSD -350.2m+17.6%
    Capex, % of revenue2.2%2.7%3.1%3.6%4.1%4.6%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -55.6mUSD -46.4mUSD -45.6mUSD -44.3mUSD -42.6mUSD -40.5mUSD -37.9mUSD -34.8mUSD -31.4mUSD -27.5m-7.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 700.6mUSD 736.0mUSD 760.1mUSD 781.4mUSD 799.7mUSD 814.7mUSD 826.0mUSD 833.6mUSD 837.4mUSD 837.1m+2.0%
    Discount factor0.96000.88460.81520.75120.69230.63800.58790.54180.49930.4601-
    Present valueUSD 672.6mUSD 651.1mUSD 619.6mUSD 587.1mUSD 553.6mUSD 519.7mUSD 485.6mUSD 451.6mUSD 418.0mUSD 385.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.965Reported 0.948, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.98%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.4bn90.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.8bn9.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.52%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 140.56

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 837.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -247.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 830.2m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 14.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 233.37

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 29.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.6bn

    Spread between methods: 50%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.52%201.44207.26214.94225.25239.52
    7.52%165.44167.54170.36174.15179.24
    8.52%139.72140.00140.56141.48142.87
    9.52%120.43119.77119.21118.77118.48
    10.52%105.42104.28103.15102.05100.97

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 236.52. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.8%4.6%10.8%
    EBIT margin24.3%22.2%37.4%
    Discount rate-8.5%6.2%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.