DCF Studio

    IFF · NYQ · Basic Materials

    International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 27.15

    Market price

    USD 94.63

    Implied upside

    -71.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 27.15-71.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 51.68-45.4%
    Market price
    USD 94.63

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.8bn+2.9%
    EBITUSD 542.9mUSD 560.5mUSD 578.2mUSD 595.9mUSD 613.6mUSD 631.3mUSD 648.8mUSD 666.3mUSD 683.6mUSD 700.7m+2.9%
    NOPATUSD 470.6mUSD 485.9mUSD 501.3mUSD 516.6mUSD 532.0mUSD 547.2mUSD 562.5mUSD 577.6mUSD 592.6mUSD 607.4m+2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 703.8mUSD 726.7mUSD 749.6mUSD 772.6mUSD 795.5mUSD 818.4mUSD 841.2mUSD 863.8mUSD 886.2mUSD 908.3m+2.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -341.4mUSD -375.7mUSD -411.5mUSD -448.8mUSD -487.5mUSD -527.7mUSD -569.2mUSD -612.1mUSD -656.3mUSD -701.7m+8.3%
    Capex, % of revenue4.5%4.8%5.1%5.4%5.7%6.0%6.3%6.6%6.9%7.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 855.1mUSD -63.9mUSD -64.1mUSD -64.1mUSD -64.1mUSD -63.9mUSD -63.6mUSD -63.1mUSD -62.6mUSD -61.9m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.7bnUSD 773.0mUSD 775.3mUSD 776.3mUSD 775.9mUSD 774.1mUSD 770.9mUSD 766.1mUSD 759.9mUSD 752.2m-8.6%
    Discount factor0.96240.89140.82570.76480.70830.65610.60770.56290.52140.4829-
    Present valueUSD 1.6bnUSD 689.0mUSD 640.1mUSD 593.7mUSD 549.6mUSD 507.9mUSD 468.5mUSD 431.2mUSD 396.2mUSD 363.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.917Reported 0.876, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.77%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 24.1bn78.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.6bn21.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.96%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 27.15

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 752.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -339.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 741.4m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.0bn

    Exit at 16.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 51.68

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.2bn

    Spread between methods: 62%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.96%45.0344.1243.2142.3041.39
    6.96%35.5034.7634.0233.2932.55
    7.96%28.3727.7627.1526.5425.94
    8.96%22.8422.3321.8221.3120.80
    9.96%18.4418.0017.5717.1316.69

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 94.63. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-4.3%-1.1%10.6%
    EBIT margin8.5%7.2%24.9%
    Discount rate-8.0%3.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.