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    IFT.AX · ASX · Industrials

    Infratil Limited

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    AUD -4.70

    Market price

    AUD 10.06

    Implied upside

    -146.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · NZD model at 0.8041 · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2026-03-31

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedReports in NZD, trades in AUD. Modelled in NZD, converted at the end.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD -4.70-146.7%
    Exit multiple
    AUD 2.60-74.1%
    Market price
    AUD 10.06

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (NZD). Outflows negative.

    0m71m142mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayNZD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueNZD 3.4bnNZD 3.6bnNZD 3.8bnNZD 4.0bnNZD 4.1bnNZD 4.3bnNZD 4.4bnNZD 4.6bnNZD 4.7bnNZD 4.8bn+3.9%
    EBITNZD 98.4mNZD 103.6mNZD 108.7mNZD 113.7mNZD 118.5mNZD 123.1mNZD 127.4mNZD 131.5mNZD 135.3mNZD 138.6m+3.9%
    NOPATNZD 90.1mNZD 94.8mNZD 99.5mNZD 104.0mNZD 108.4mNZD 112.7mNZD 116.6mNZD 120.4mNZD 123.8mNZD 126.9m+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationNZD 558.6mNZD 588.0mNZD 616.9mNZD 645.1mNZD 672.4mNZD 698.5mNZD 723.2mNZD 746.3mNZD 767.5mNZD 786.7m+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureNZD -576.4mNZD -608.6mNZD -640.5mNZD -671.8mNZD -702.3mNZD -731.8mNZD -759.9mNZD -786.5mNZD -811.3mNZD -834.1m+4.2%
    Capex, % of revenue16.8%16.9%16.9%17.0%17.0%17.1%17.1%17.2%17.2%17.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalNZD 69.5mNZD 29.3mNZD 28.9mNZD 28.1mNZD 27.2mNZD 26.0mNZD 24.6mNZD 23.0mNZD 21.2mNZD 19.1m+13.4%
    Free cashflow to firmNZD 141.8mNZD 103.6mNZD 104.8mNZD 105.5mNZD 105.7mNZD 105.4mNZD 104.6mNZD 103.1mNZD 101.2mNZD 98.6m-4.0%
    Discount factor0.96810.90740.85040.79700.74700.70010.65620.61500.57640.5402-
    Present valueNZD 137.3mNZD 94.0mNZD 89.1mNZD 84.1mNZD 79.0mNZD 73.8mNZD 68.6mNZD 63.4mNZD 58.3mNZD 53.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastNZD 800.9m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.21%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2), 2026-10-28
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.370Reported 0.060, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.77%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.21%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a C rating at 0.4x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 6.1%.
    Market capitalisationNZD 10.1bn55.9% of capital
    Total debtNZD 7.9bn44.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate8.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.70%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareNZD -5.84

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    NZD 98.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    NZD 126.9m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.3% of NOPAT)
    NZD -47.4m
    Capitalised
    NZD 79.5m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    NZD 1.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    NZD 1.0bn
    Enterprise value
    NZD 1.9bn
    Less net debt
    NZD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    NZD -5.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareNZD 3.24

    93% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    NZD 18.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    NZD 10.0bn
    Enterprise value
    NZD 10.8bn
    Less net debt
    NZD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    NZD 3.2bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (NZD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.70%-5.01-5.05-5.09-5.12-5.16
    5.70%-5.47-5.50-5.53-5.56-5.59
    6.70%-5.79-5.82-5.84-5.86-5.89
    7.70%-6.03-6.05-6.07-6.09-6.11
    8.70%-6.22-6.23-6.25-6.27-6.28

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 12.52. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year36.0%4.9%32.6%
    EBIT margin6.8%2.9%33.4%
    Discount rate-6.7%2.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.