IFT.NZ · NZE · Industrials
Infratil Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
NZD -0.46
Market price
NZD 14.02
Implied upside
-103.3%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 27.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (NZD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | NZD 4.1bn | NZD 5.5bn | NZD 7.5bn | NZD 10.3bn | NZD 14.0bn | +36.0% |
| EBIT | NZD 117.2m | NZD 159.4m | NZD 216.8m | NZD 294.9m | NZD 401.1m | +36.0% |
| NOPAT | NZD 107.2m | NZD 145.9m | NZD 198.4m | NZD 269.9m | NZD 367.1m | +36.0% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | NZD 664.9m | NZD 904.4m | NZD 1.2bn | NZD 1.7bn | NZD 2.3bn | +36.0% |
| Less capital expenditure | NZD -686.1m | NZD -933.3m | NZD -1.3bn | NZD -1.7bn | NZD -2.3bn | +36.0% |
| Less increase in working capital | NZD 237.7m | NZD 323.3m | NZD 439.8m | NZD 598.2m | NZD 813.7m | -36.0% |
| Free cashflow to firm | NZD 323.7m | NZD 440.3m | NZD 598.9m | NZD 814.7m | NZD 1.1bn | +36.0% |
| Discount factor | 0.9694 | 0.9109 | 0.8560 | 0.8044 | 0.7559 | - |
| Present value | NZD 313.8m | NZD 401.1m | NZD 512.7m | NZD 655.3m | NZD 837.6m | +27.8% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | NZD 2.7bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.50% | NZD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.365 | Reported 0.052, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.87% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 6.13% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | NZD 14.0bn | 63.9% of capital |
| Total debt | NZD 7.9bn | 36.1% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 8.5% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.42% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
62% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- NZD 1.1bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- NZD 367.1m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (39.0% of NOPAT)
- NZD -143.0m
- Capitalised
- NZD 224.1m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 6.4%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- NZD 5.9bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- NZD 4.4bn
- Enterprise value
- NZD 7.2bn
- Less net debt
- NZD 7.6bn
- Equity value
- NZD -453.6m
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
94% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- NZD 53.5bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- NZD 40.5bn
- Enterprise value
- NZD 43.2bn
- Less net debt
- NZD 7.6bn
- Equity value
- NZD 35.6bn
Sensitivity
Value per share (NZD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.42% | 2.25 | 2.29 | 2.32 | 2.35 | 2.39 |
| 5.42% | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| 6.42% | -0.50 | -0.48 | -0.46 | -0.44 | -0.42 |
| 7.42% | -1.34 | -1.32 | -1.30 | -1.28 | -1.27 |
| 8.42% | -1.98 | -1.97 | -1.95 | -1.94 | -1.92 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 14.02. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 36.0% | 68.8% | +32.8pp |
| EBIT margin | 2.9% | 10.6% | +7.7pp |
| Discount rate | 6.4% | 2.7% | -3.7pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.