DCF Studio

    IMD.AX · ASX · Industrials

    Imdex Limited

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    AUD 1.04

    Market price

    AUD 3.33

    Implied upside

    -68.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD 1.04-68.7%
    Exit multiple
    AUD 3.54+6.4%
    Market price
    AUD 3.33

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (AUD). Outflows negative.

    0m45m89mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayAUD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31CAGR
    RevenueAUD 562.4mAUD 608.1mAUD 657.5mAUD 710.9mAUD 768.7m+8.1%
    EBITAUD 84.3mAUD 91.2mAUD 98.6mAUD 106.6mAUD 115.3m+8.1%
    NOPATAUD 60.0mAUD 64.9mAUD 70.1mAUD 75.8mAUD 82.0m+8.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationAUD 70.2mAUD 75.9mAUD 82.0mAUD 88.7mAUD 95.9m+8.1%
    Less capital expenditureAUD -57.3mAUD -62.0mAUD -67.0mAUD -72.4mAUD -78.3m+8.1%
    Less increase in working capitalAUD -7.5mAUD -8.1mAUD -8.7mAUD -9.4mAUD -10.2m+8.1%
    Free cashflow to firmAUD 65.4mAUD 70.7mAUD 76.4mAUD 82.6mAUD 89.3m+8.1%
    Discount factor0.94940.85580.77140.69530.6268-
    Present valueAUD 62.1mAUD 60.5mAUD 58.9mAUD 57.5mAUD 56.0m-2.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastAUD 294.9m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.35%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta1.121Reported 1.180, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.07%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.69%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationAUD 1.7bn85.9% of capital
    Total debtAUD 284.5m14.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate28.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.94%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareAUD 1.04

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    AUD 89.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    AUD 82.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.9% of NOPAT)
    AUD -18.7m
    Capitalised
    AUD 63.3m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    10.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 768.2m
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 481.5m
    Enterprise value
    AUD 776.4m
    Less net debt
    AUD 243.7m
    Equity value
    AUD 532.7m

    Exit at 13.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareAUD 3.54

    86% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 2.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 1.8bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 2.1bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 243.7m
    Equity value
    AUD 1.8bn

    Spread between methods: 109%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (AUD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.94%1.361.371.381.381.39
    9.94%1.181.191.191.201.20
    10.94%1.031.041.041.051.05
    11.94%0.910.910.920.920.92
    12.94%0.800.810.810.810.82

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 3.33. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year8.1%36.0%+27.8pp
    EBIT margin15.0%38.4%+23.4pp
    Discount rate10.9%5.1%-5.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.