DCF Studio

    INCY · NMS · Healthcare

    Incyte Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 73.32

    Market price

    USD 120.04

    Implied upside

    -38.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 73.32-38.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 92.03-23.3%
    Market price
    USD 120.04

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m381m763mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bn+3.5%
    EBITUSD 960.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+3.5%
    NOPATUSD 758.6mUSD 793.1mUSD 827.1mUSD 860.5mUSD 893.0mUSD 924.5mUSD 954.7mUSD 983.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bn+3.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 123.0mUSD 128.6mUSD 134.1mUSD 139.5mUSD 144.8mUSD 149.9mUSD 154.8mUSD 159.4mUSD 163.8mUSD 167.9m+3.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -114.2mUSD -141.7mUSD -171.1mUSD -202.2mUSD -235.0mUSD -269.3mUSD -305.0mUSD -341.9mUSD -379.8mUSD -418.5m+15.5%
    Capex, % of revenue1.9%2.2%2.6%3.0%3.3%3.7%4.0%4.4%4.7%5.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -154.5mUSD -47.5mUSD -46.9mUSD -46.0mUSD -44.8mUSD -43.4mUSD -41.6mUSD -39.6mUSD -37.3mUSD -34.8m-15.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 612.9mUSD 732.5mUSD 743.3mUSD 751.8mUSD 758.0mUSD 761.7mUSD 762.8mUSD 761.3mUSD 757.2mUSD 750.4m+2.3%
    Discount factor0.96000.88480.81540.75150.69260.63830.58830.54210.49960.4605-
    Present valueUSD 588.4mUSD 648.0mUSD 606.1mUSD 565.0mUSD 525.0mUSD 486.2mUSD 448.7mUSD 412.8mUSD 378.3mUSD 345.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.855Reported 0.784, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.51%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 24.5bn99.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 40.4m0.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.51%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 73.32

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 750.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -250.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 785.3m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -3.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.7bn

    Exit at 14.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 92.03

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 21.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -3.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.5bn

    Spread between methods: 23%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.51%95.4397.3099.78103.16107.85
    7.51%82.5483.1183.9285.0386.57
    8.51%73.3473.2973.3273.4673.74
    9.51%66.4466.0865.7465.4365.15
    10.51%61.1760.6860.1959.7159.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 120.04. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year14.8%4.8%13.0%
    EBIT margin26.1%15.9%28.8%
    Discount rate-8.5%5.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.