DCF Studio

    INF.L · LSE · Communication Services

    Informa plc

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    GBp 2252.49

    Market price

    GBp 874.60

    Implied upside

    +157.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: GBP assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    GBp 2252.49+157.5%
    Exit multiple
    GBp 2247.49+157.0%
    Market price
    GBp 874.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (GBP). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayGBP
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueGBP 4.9bnGBP 5.9bnGBP 7.2bnGBP 8.8bnGBP 10.6bn+21.3%
    EBITGBP 808.1mGBP 980.5mGBP 1.2bnGBP 1.4bnGBP 1.8bn+21.3%
    NOPATGBP 726.9mGBP 882.0mGBP 1.1bnGBP 1.3bnGBP 1.6bn+21.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationGBP 612.3mGBP 742.9mGBP 901.4mGBP 1.1bnGBP 1.3bn+21.3%
    Less capital expenditureGBP -156.9mGBP -190.4mGBP -231.0mGBP -280.2mGBP -340.0m+21.3%
    Less increase in working capitalGBP 30.7mGBP 37.3mGBP 45.2mGBP 54.9mGBP 66.6m-21.3%
    Free cashflow to firmGBP 1.2bnGBP 1.5bnGBP 1.8bnGBP 2.2bnGBP 2.6bn+21.3%
    Discount factor0.96360.89480.83090.77150.7164-
    Present valueGBP 1.2bnGBP 1.3bnGBP 1.5bnGBP 1.7bnGBP 1.9bn+12.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastGBP 7.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.50%GBP assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.788Reported 0.684, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.84%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.56%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationGBP 10.9bn75.8% of capital
    Total debtGBP 3.5bn24.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate10.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.69%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareGBP 22.52

    77% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    GBP 2.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    GBP 2.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.5% of NOPAT)
    GBP -855.6m
    Capitalised
    GBP 1.8bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    GBP 35.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    GBP 25.1bn
    Enterprise value
    GBP 32.7bn
    Less net debt
    GBP 3.1bn
    Equity value
    GBP 29.5bn

    Exit at 11.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareGBP 22.47

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    GBP 35.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    GBP 25.1bn
    Enterprise value
    GBP 32.6bn
    Less net debt
    GBP 3.1bn
    Equity value
    GBP 29.4bn

    Spread between methods: 0%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (GBP) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.69%32.3132.8433.4834.3235.49
    6.69%26.2626.3726.4926.6026.71
    7.69%22.3422.4322.5222.6222.71
    8.69%19.3219.4019.4819.5619.64
    9.69%16.9417.0117.0817.1417.21

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 8.75. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year21.3%1.6%-19.8pp
    EBIT margin16.5%1.3%-15.2pp
    Discount rate7.7%16.2%+8.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.