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    INTC · NMS · Technology

    Intel Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -13.97

    Market price

    USD 59.97

    Implied upside

    -123.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 39.9% of revenue against depreciation of 20.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 28.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -13.97-123.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 18.28-69.5%
    Market price
    USD 59.97

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -14bn-6bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 61.8bnUSD 69.3bnUSD 76.9bnUSD 84.3bnUSD 91.5bnUSD 98.2bnUSD 104.2bnUSD 109.3bnUSD 113.3bnUSD 116.2bn+7.3%
    EBITUSD -795.9mUSD -892.2mUSD -989.5mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bn-7.3%
    NOPATUSD -628.8mUSD -704.9mUSD -781.7mUSD -857.5mUSD -930.4mUSD -998.4mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bn-7.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 12.7bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 20.1bnUSD 21.3bnUSD 22.4bnUSD 23.2bnUSD 23.8bn+7.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -24.7bnUSD -26.0bnUSD -27.0bnUSD -27.5bnUSD -27.6bnUSD -27.3bnUSD -26.4bnUSD -25.0bnUSD -23.2bnUSD -20.9bn-1.8%
    Capex, % of revenue39.9%37.5%35.1%32.6%30.2%27.8%25.3%22.9%20.5%18.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -967.8mUSD -805.4mUSD -813.3mUSD -802.7mUSD -771.6mUSD -719.0mUSD -644.7mUSD -549.4mUSD -435.2mUSD -304.9m-12.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -13.6bnUSD -13.3bnUSD -12.8bnUSD -11.9bnUSD -10.6bnUSD -8.9bnUSD -6.7bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -1.6bnUSD 1.4bn-
    Discount factor0.94410.84160.75020.66880.59620.53140.47370.42230.37640.3356-
    Present valueUSD -12.9bnUSD -11.2bnUSD -9.6bnUSD -8.0bnUSD -6.3bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -586.1mUSD 460.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -57.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.955Reported 2.426, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity13.17%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a D rating at -0.0x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 318.7bn87.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 46.6bn12.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC12.18%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -13.97

    -7% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -263.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    12.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 10.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 3.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -54.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.2bn
    Equity value
    USD -63.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 18.28

    163% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 446.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 149.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 92.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 82.8bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    10.18%-14.29-14.31-14.34-14.37-14.39
    11.18%-14.12-14.14-14.16-14.19-14.21
    12.18%-13.93-13.95-13.97-13.99-14.01
    13.18%-13.73-13.75-13.77-13.79-13.80
    14.18%-13.53-13.54-13.56-13.57-13.59

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 59.97. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    EBIT margin3.7%-1.3%52.1%
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    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.