DCF Studio

    INVH · NYQ · Real Estate

    Invitation Homes Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 5.70

    Market price

    USD 26.86

    Implied upside

    -78.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 8.91% of revenue against depreciation of 27.46%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 27.46% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 5.70-78.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 20.13-25.1%
    Market price
    USD 26.86

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m435m870mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+1.9%
    EBITUSD 838.0mUSD 849.0mUSD 861.3mUSD 875.2mUSD 890.5mUSD 907.5mUSD 926.1mUSD 946.5mUSD 968.7mUSD 993.0m+1.9%
    NOPATUSD 838.0mUSD 849.0mUSD 861.3mUSD 875.2mUSD 890.5mUSD 907.5mUSD 926.1mUSD 946.5mUSD 968.7mUSD 993.0m+1.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 816.8mUSD 827.5mUSD 839.6mUSD 853.1mUSD 868.0mUSD 884.6mUSD 902.7mUSD 922.6mUSD 944.3mUSD 967.9m+1.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -809.1mUSD -849.6mUSD -892.4mUSD -937.6mUSD -985.5mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bn+5.2%
    Capex, % of revenue27.5%28.5%29.5%30.5%31.5%32.5%33.5%34.5%35.5%36.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 24.4mUSD 4.3mUSD 4.9mUSD 5.4mUSD 6.0mUSD 6.7mUSD 7.3mUSD 8.0mUSD 8.8mUSD 9.5m+9.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 870.1mUSD 831.2mUSD 813.4mUSD 796.1mUSD 779.1mUSD 762.4mUSD 745.9mUSD 729.4mUSD 712.9mUSD 696.3m-2.4%
    Discount factor0.96250.89170.82610.76530.70900.65680.60850.56370.52220.4838-
    Present valueUSD 837.5mUSD 741.2mUSD 671.9mUSD 609.2mUSD 552.4mUSD 500.8mUSD 453.9mUSD 411.2mUSD 372.3mUSD 336.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.874Reported 0.812, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.59%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 15.6bn65.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.4bn34.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.94%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 5.70

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 696.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -315.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 686.7m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 12.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.5bn

    Exit at 15.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 20.13

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 12.3bn

    Spread between methods: 112%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.94%12.6912.3311.9711.6211.26
    6.94%8.968.678.388.097.80
    7.94%6.185.945.705.465.22
    8.94%4.023.823.613.413.21
    9.94%2.292.121.951.781.60

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 26.86. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.8%2.5%11.6%
    EBIT margin29.1%28.4%60.3%
    Discount rate-7.9%3.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.