DCF Studio

    IQV · NYQ · Healthcare

    IQVIA Holdings Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 183.40

    Market price

    USD 258.44

    Implied upside

    -29.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 183.40-29.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 279.56+8.2%
    Market price
    USD 258.44

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 17.5bnUSD 18.6bnUSD 19.7bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 21.8bnUSD 22.7bnUSD 23.6bnUSD 24.4bnUSD 25.2bnUSD 25.8bn+4.4%
    EBITUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+4.4%
    NOPATUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bn+4.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bn+4.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -726.1mUSD -808.0mUSD -893.3mUSD -981.3mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bn+8.5%
    Capex, % of revenue4.2%4.3%4.5%4.7%4.9%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.7%5.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -57.7mUSD -54.6mUSD -53.6mUSD -52.1mUSD -50.0mUSD -47.3mUSD -44.1mUSD -40.2mUSD -35.8mUSD -31.0m-6.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bn+3.1%
    Discount factor0.96100.88740.81950.75680.69890.64540.59600.55040.50830.4694-
    Present valueUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 20.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.111Reported 1.165, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.59%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 42.6bn72.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.9bn27.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.29%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 183.40

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 54.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 25.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 45.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 31.8bn

    Exit at 16.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 279.56

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 89.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 42.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 62.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 48.5bn

    Spread between methods: 42%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.29%300.17306.31315.03327.48345.67
    7.29%234.75234.79235.55237.27240.33
    8.29%188.61185.96183.40180.96178.68
    9.29%156.93154.14151.34148.55145.76
    10.29%132.78130.39128.00125.61123.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 258.44. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.2%4.7%7.8%
    EBIT margin14.7%13.8%19.4%
    Discount rate-8.3%6.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.