DCF Studio

    IR · NYQ · Industrials

    Ingersoll Rand Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 45.93

    Market price

    USD 82.73

    Implied upside

    -44.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 45.93-44.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 75.39-8.9%
    Market price
    USD 82.73

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.8bn+4.3%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+4.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+4.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 554.2mUSD 587.6mUSD 620.4mUSD 652.3mUSD 682.9mUSD 712.0mUSD 739.2mUSD 764.2mUSD 786.7mUSD 806.3m+4.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -141.6mUSD -197.5mUSD -258.5mUSD -324.3mUSD -394.6mUSD -468.8mUSD -546.3mUSD -626.3mUSD -708.1mUSD -790.8m+21.1%
    Capex, % of revenue1.7%2.3%2.8%3.4%3.9%4.5%5.0%5.6%6.1%6.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -104.5mUSD -106.5mUSD -104.7mUSD -101.8mUSD -97.9mUSD -92.9mUSD -86.8mUSD -79.8mUSD -71.7mUSD -62.8m-5.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+1.3%
    Discount factor0.95830.88000.80810.74210.68150.62590.57470.52780.48470.4451-
    Present valueUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 956.6mUSD 880.9mUSD 807.0mUSD 735.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 10.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.107Reported 1.160, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.58%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 31.8bn86.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.8bn13.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.89%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 45.93

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -618.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.6bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 22.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.4bn

    Exit at 17.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 75.39

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 51.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 33.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 30.2bn

    Spread between methods: 49%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.89%65.7465.5665.5365.7166.19
    7.89%54.5653.7752.9952.2151.42
    8.89%47.2546.5945.9345.2844.62
    9.89%41.4340.8740.3139.7539.19
    10.89%36.7036.2135.7335.2534.77

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 82.73. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.9%4.5%11.3%
    EBIT margin20.1%18.2%34.0%
    Discount rate-8.9%6.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.