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    Iron Mountain Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 10.09

    Market price

    USD 115.18

    Implied upside

    -91.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 8.8% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 26.5% of revenue against depreciation of 14.9%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 10.09-91.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 105.49-8.4%
    Market price
    USD 115.18

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 12.5bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 13.2bn+5.7%
    EBITUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+5.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+5.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+5.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.1bn-0.0%
    Capex, % of revenue26.5%25.3%24.2%23.0%21.8%20.7%19.5%18.3%17.2%16.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -134.8mUSD -85.5mUSD -84.8mUSD -82.6mUSD -78.9mUSD -73.7mUSD -66.9mUSD -58.7mUSD -49.1mUSD -38.4m-13.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 212.8mUSD 395.2mUSD 545.4mUSD 712.2mUSD 894.0mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bn+27.7%
    Discount factor0.96150.88880.82160.75960.70220.64910.60000.55470.51280.4740-
    Present valueUSD 204.6mUSD 351.3mUSD 448.1mUSD 541.0mUSD 627.7mUSD 706.4mUSD 775.3mUSD 833.1mUSD 878.7mUSD 911.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.134Reported 1.200, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.69%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B rating at 1.7x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 34.3bn64.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 19.1bn35.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 10.09

    71% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -803.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.8bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 18.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 105.49

    88% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 92.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 44.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 50.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 18.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 31.4bn

    Spread between methods: 165%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.17%48.7449.2450.2952.1455.23
    7.17%26.0824.7523.4322.1420.87
    8.17%12.4311.2610.098.927.74
    9.17%2.041.050.06-0.93-1.91
    10.17%-6.20-7.04-7.89-8.73-9.57

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 115.18. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year10.6%6.7%17.4%
    EBIT margin20.5%20.2%48.3%
    Discount rate-8.2%4.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.