DCF Studio

    ISP.MI · MIL · Financial Services

    Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 4.75

    Market price

    EUR 6.67

    Implied upside

    -28.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 4.75-28.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 9.19+37.8%
    Market price
    EUR 6.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn9bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 31.3bnEUR 34.4bnEUR 37.7bnEUR 41.4bnEUR 45.5bn+9.8%
    EBITEUR 12.4bnEUR 13.6bnEUR 14.9bnEUR 16.4bnEUR 18.0bn+9.8%
    NOPATEUR 9.3bnEUR 10.2bnEUR 11.2bnEUR 12.3bnEUR 13.5bn+9.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.0bn+9.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.1bnEUR -2.3bnEUR -2.5bnEUR -2.8bnEUR -3.1bn+9.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -2.8bnEUR -3.1bnEUR -3.4bnEUR -3.7bnEUR -4.1bn+9.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 6.5bnEUR 7.1bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 8.6bnEUR 9.4bn+9.8%
    Discount factor0.96430.89670.83380.77530.7209-
    Present valueEUR 6.3bnEUR 6.4bnEUR 6.5bnEUR 6.6bnEUR 6.8bn+2.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 32.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.895Reported 0.844, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.02%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.31%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 115.9bn45.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 139.3bn54.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 4.75

    81% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 9.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 14.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.1% of NOPAT)
    EUR -4.8bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 9.7bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 197.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 142.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 174.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 92.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 82.5bn

    Exit at 14.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 9.19

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 304.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 219.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 251.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 92.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 159.7bn

    Spread between methods: 64%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.54%8.658.718.778.838.89
    6.54%6.356.406.446.496.54
    7.54%4.674.714.754.794.83
    8.54%3.383.423.453.493.52
    9.54%2.382.402.432.462.49

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 6.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year9.8%14.8%+5.0pp
    EBIT margin39.6%47.0%+7.4pp
    Discount rate7.5%6.4%-1.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.