DCF Studio

    IT · NYQ · Technology

    Gartner, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 229.19

    Market price

    USD 235.26

    Implied upside

    -2.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 229.19-2.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 225.47-4.2%
    Market price
    USD 235.26

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.6bn+3.3%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+3.3%
    NOPATUSD 958.5mUSD 997.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn+3.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 209.4mUSD 217.8mUSD 226.1mUSD 234.4mUSD 242.5mUSD 250.4mUSD 258.1mUSD 265.5mUSD 272.6mUSD 279.4m+3.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -114.1mUSD -129.6mUSD -145.9mUSD -163.0mUSD -180.7mUSD -199.2mUSD -218.2mUSD -237.8mUSD -257.9mUSD -278.3m+10.4%
    Capex, % of revenue1.8%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%2.9%3.1%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 20.9mUSD -67.3mUSD -66.7mUSD -65.9mUSD -64.7mUSD -63.2mUSD -61.5mUSD -59.5mUSD -57.1mUSD -54.5m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+1.5%
    Discount factor0.96220.89080.82480.76360.70690.65450.60600.56100.51940.4809-
    Present valueUSD 1.0bnUSD 906.7mUSD 864.9mUSD 823.5mUSD 782.5mUSD 742.2mUSD 702.7mUSD 664.0mUSD 626.2mUSD 589.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.941Reported 0.912, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.87%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 14.9bn81.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.3bn18.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.01%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 229.19

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -122.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    28.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 23.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.3bn

    Exit at 12.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 225.47

    59% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 22.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.0bn

    Spread between methods: 2%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.01%314.78338.02368.12408.48465.25
    7.01%253.93267.05283.25303.69330.16
    8.01%211.84219.73229.19240.68254.89
    9.01%180.99185.93191.73198.62206.88
    10.01%157.44160.59164.25168.53173.57

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 235.26. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.9%2.8%3.1%
    EBIT margin20.3%18.9%19.4%
    Discount rate-8.0%7.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.