DCF Studio

    ITW · NYQ · Industrials

    Illinois Tool Works Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 112.10

    Market price

    USD 269.42

    Implied upside

    -58.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 112.10-58.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 203.90-24.3%
    Market price
    USD 269.42

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.2bnUSD 16.2bnUSD 16.2bn+0.2%
    EBITUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.1bn+0.2%
    NOPATUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bn+0.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 403.2mUSD 404.1mUSD 405.1mUSD 406.0mUSD 407.0m+0.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -433.0mUSD -434.1mUSD -435.1mUSD -436.1mUSD -437.1m+0.2%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 3.2mUSD 3.2mUSD 3.2mUSD 3.3mUSD 3.3m-0.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bn+0.2%
    Discount factor0.95440.86930.79180.72120.6570-
    Present valueUSD 3.1bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bn-8.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.998Reported 0.997, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.49%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 76.7bn89.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.2bn10.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.79%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 112.10

    69% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -298.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    28.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 43.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 28.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 41.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 32.8bn

    Exit at 18.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 203.90

    81% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 83.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 55.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 68.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 59.6bn

    Spread between methods: 58%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.79%142.59151.51162.08174.83190.53
    8.79%120.03126.10133.13141.34151.08
    9.79%102.90107.21112.10117.69124.14
    10.79%89.4592.6196.13100.08104.57
    11.79%78.6180.9883.5886.4789.69

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 269.42. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year0.2%18.3%+18.0pp
    EBIT margin25.5%54.4%+28.9pp
    Discount rate9.8%5.8%-4.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.