DCF Studio

    ITX.MC · MCE · Consumer Cyclical

    Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 34.82

    Market price

    EUR 51.74

    Implied upside

    -32.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 34.82-32.7%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 56.32+8.9%
    Market price
    EUR 51.74

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn9bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31CAGR
    RevenueEUR 42.6bnEUR 45.6bnEUR 48.8bnEUR 52.2bnEUR 55.8bn+7.0%
    EBITEUR 8.3bnEUR 8.8bnEUR 9.4bnEUR 10.1bnEUR 10.8bn+7.0%
    NOPATEUR 6.4bnEUR 6.8bnEUR 7.3bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 8.4bn+7.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.7bnEUR 3.9bnEUR 4.2bnEUR 4.5bn+7.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.5bnEUR -2.7bnEUR -2.8bnEUR -3.0bnEUR -3.2bn+7.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -204.9mEUR -219.2mEUR -234.4mEUR -250.8mEUR -268.2m+7.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 7.2bnEUR 7.6bnEUR 8.2bnEUR 8.8bnEUR 9.4bn+7.0%
    Discount factor0.95310.86580.78650.71440.6490-
    Present valueEUR 6.8bnEUR 6.6bnEUR 6.4bnEUR 6.3bnEUR 6.1bn-2.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 32.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.936Reported 0.905, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.29%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.16%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 161.2bn96.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 6.1bn3.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate22.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.09%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 34.82

    69% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 9.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 8.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -755.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 8.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    29.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 110.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 71.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 103.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -4.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR 108.6bn

    Exit at 13.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 56.32

    81% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 213.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 138.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 170.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -4.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR 175.6bn

    Spread between methods: 47%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.09%41.8243.8346.1949.0052.42
    9.09%36.6638.0539.6441.5043.67
    10.09%32.7033.6934.8236.1037.57
    11.09%29.5630.3031.1232.0433.07
    12.09%27.0127.5728.1828.8629.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 51.74. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.0%17.6%+10.7pp
    EBIT margin19.4%30.0%+10.6pp
    Discount rate10.1%7.4%-2.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.