DCF Studio

    IVZ · NYQ · Financial Services

    Invesco Ltd.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -10.39

    Market price

    USD 27.77

    Implied upside

    -137.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -10.39-137.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD -8.99-132.4%
    Market price
    USD 27.77

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m203m407mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bn+4.9%
    EBITUSD 242.3mUSD 259.9mUSD 277.2mUSD 294.1mUSD 310.2mUSD 325.4mUSD 339.3mUSD 351.9mUSD 362.7mUSD 371.8m+4.9%
    NOPATUSD 191.4mUSD 205.3mUSD 219.0mUSD 232.3mUSD 245.1mUSD 257.0mUSD 268.1mUSD 278.0mUSD 286.6mUSD 293.7m+4.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 158.7mUSD 170.3mUSD 181.6mUSD 192.6mUSD 203.2mUSD 213.1mUSD 222.3mUSD 230.5mUSD 237.6mUSD 243.6m+4.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -114.3mUSD -134.6mUSD -156.4mUSD -179.5mUSD -203.6mUSD -228.6mUSD -254.1mUSD -279.7mUSD -305.1mUSD -329.8m+12.5%
    Capex, % of revenue2.1%2.3%2.5%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.8%4.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 171.0mUSD -66.0mUSD -65.0mUSD -63.1mUSD -60.4mUSD -56.7mUSD -52.3mUSD -46.9mUSD -40.8mUSD -34.0m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 406.8mUSD 175.0mUSD 179.3mUSD 182.4mUSD 184.3mUSD 184.8mUSD 184.0mUSD 181.8mUSD 178.3mUSD 173.5m-9.0%
    Discount factor0.96000.88470.81530.75140.69240.63810.58810.54200.49950.4603-
    Present valueUSD 390.5mUSD 154.8mUSD 146.2mUSD 137.0mUSD 127.6mUSD 117.9mUSD 108.2mUSD 98.6mUSD 89.1mUSD 79.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.435Reported 1.650, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.97%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a D rating at -8.4x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 12.2bn55.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.8bn44.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.51%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -10.39

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 173.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 293.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -86.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 207.4m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 3.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 3.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.8bn
    Equity value
    USD -4.7bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -8.99

    61% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 3.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.8bn
    Equity value
    USD -4.1bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.51%-8.08-8.20-8.32-8.44-8.56
    7.51%-9.30-9.40-9.49-9.59-9.69
    8.51%-10.22-10.31-10.39-10.47-10.55
    9.51%-10.95-11.02-11.09-11.16-11.23
    10.51%-11.54-11.59-11.65-11.71-11.77

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 27.77. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.8%2.6%32.2%
    EBIT margin22.1%4.5%30.3%
    Discount rate-8.5%3.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.