DCF Studio

    J · NYQ · Industrials

    Jacobs Solutions Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 115.77

    Market price

    USD 160.24

    Implied upside

    -27.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 115.77-27.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 178.22+11.2%
    Market price
    USD 160.24

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.7bnUSD 16.3bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 18.1bnUSD 18.7bnUSD 19.2bnUSD 19.7bnUSD 20.2bn+3.4%
    EBITUSD 936.8mUSD 976.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn+3.4%
    NOPATUSD 766.5mUSD 798.8mUSD 830.8mUSD 862.3mUSD 893.1mUSD 923.1mUSD 952.1mUSD 980.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bn+3.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 396.8mUSD 413.5mUSD 430.1mUSD 446.4mUSD 462.3mUSD 477.9mUSD 492.9mUSD 507.3mUSD 521.1mUSD 534.1m+3.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -160.8mUSD -201.2mUSD -244.1mUSD -289.6mUSD -337.5mUSD -387.7mUSD -439.9mUSD -493.9mUSD -549.6mUSD -606.8m+15.9%
    Capex, % of revenue1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -60.9mUSD -12.9mUSD -12.8mUSD -12.6mUSD -12.3mUSD -12.0mUSD -11.6mUSD -11.1mUSD -10.6mUSD -10.0m-18.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 941.5mUSD 998.2mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 993.6mUSD 982.3mUSD 967.4mUSD 949.1m+0.1%
    Discount factor0.96350.89430.83010.77060.71530.66400.61630.57210.53100.4929-
    Present valueUSD 907.1mUSD 892.8mUSD 833.4mUSD 775.5mUSD 719.3mUSD 664.8mUSD 612.3mUSD 561.9mUSD 513.8mUSD 467.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.778Reported 0.669, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.19%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.8bn87.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.7bn12.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.73%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 115.77

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 949.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -427.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 894.6m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.1bn

    Exit at 18.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 178.22

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 23.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 21.7bn

    Spread between methods: 42%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.73%174.70176.91180.40185.91194.75
    6.73%140.40139.23138.22137.44136.99
    7.73%119.01117.39115.77114.16112.54
    8.73%103.91102.55101.1999.8498.48
    9.73%91.9290.7789.6288.4787.31

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 160.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.1%5.3%9.1%
    EBIT margin7.2%6.2%9.0%
    Discount rate-7.7%6.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.