J69U.SI · SES · Real Estate
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 0.82
Market price
SGD 2.10
Implied upside
-60.8%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 29.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 355.3m | SGD 359.0m | SGD 362.6m | SGD 366.4m | SGD 370.1m | +1.0% |
| EBIT | SGD 218.8m | SGD 221.0m | SGD 223.3m | SGD 225.6m | SGD 227.9m | +1.0% |
| NOPAT | SGD 216.4m | SGD 218.6m | SGD 220.8m | SGD 223.1m | SGD 225.4m | +1.0% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 45.0k | SGD 45.4k | SGD 45.9k | SGD 46.3k | SGD 46.8k | +1.0% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -15.5m | SGD -15.7m | SGD -15.8m | SGD -16.0m | SGD -16.2m | +1.0% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD 2.0m | SGD 2.0m | SGD 2.0m | SGD 2.0m | SGD 2.0m | -1.0% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 202.9m | SGD 204.9m | SGD 207.0m | SGD 209.2m | SGD 211.3m | +1.0% |
| Discount factor | 0.9682 | 0.9077 | 0.8510 | 0.7978 | 0.7480 | - |
| Present value | SGD 196.4m | SGD 186.0m | SGD 176.2m | SGD 166.9m | SGD 158.0m | -5.3% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 883.5m | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.562 | Reported 0.347, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.86% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 4.3bn | 67.9% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 2.0bn | 32.1% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 1.1% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.67% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
75% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 211.3m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 225.4m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.5% of NOPAT)
- SGD -84.5m
- Capitalised
- SGD 140.8m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 6.7%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 3.5bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 2.6bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 3.5bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 2.0bn
- Equity value
- SGD 1.5bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
79% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 4.6bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 3.4bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 4.3bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 2.0bn
- Equity value
- SGD 2.3bn
Spread between methods: 43%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.67% | 1.63 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.67 |
| 5.67% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| 6.67% | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| 7.67% | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| 8.67% | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.39 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 2.10. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 1.0% | 12.4% | +11.4pp |
| Discount rate | 6.7% | 4.0% | -2.7pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.