DCF Studio

    JBHT · NMS · Industrials

    J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 103.89

    Market price

    USD 223.80

    Implied upside

    -53.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 9.5% of revenue against depreciation of 5.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 103.89-53.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 228.72+2.2%
    Market price
    USD 223.80

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.0bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 18.5bnUSD 19.9bnUSD 21.2bnUSD 22.4bnUSD 23.4bnUSD 24.2bnUSD 24.9bn+6.6%
    EBITUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bn+6.6%
    NOPATUSD 849.5mUSD 941.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+6.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 780.1mUSD 864.5mUSD 949.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+6.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bn+2.5%
    Capex, % of revenue9.5%9.2%8.9%8.6%8.3%8.0%7.6%7.3%7.0%6.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -99.1mUSD -76.3mUSD -76.4mUSD -75.0mUSD -71.8mUSD -66.9mUSD -60.2mUSD -51.8mUSD -41.9mUSD -30.7m-12.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 198.8mUSD 302.6mUSD 393.1mUSD 493.8mUSD 603.5mUSD 720.3mUSD 841.9mUSD 965.5mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+22.2%
    Discount factor0.95570.87280.79720.72810.66500.60730.55470.50660.46270.4226-
    Present valueUSD 189.9mUSD 264.1mUSD 313.3mUSD 359.5mUSD 401.3mUSD 437.5mUSD 467.0mUSD 489.2mUSD 503.4mUSD 509.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 3.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.174Reported 1.260, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.86%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 21.0bn93.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.5bn6.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.49%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 103.89

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -276.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.1bn

    Exit at 14.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 228.72

    83% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 47.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 23.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 22.3bn

    Spread between methods: 75%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.49%150.72155.23160.90168.12177.46
    8.49%122.86124.91127.51130.79134.98
    9.49%102.20102.91103.89105.19106.89
    10.49%86.3286.2886.3686.5987.00
    11.49%73.7973.3072.8772.5172.23

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 223.80. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-6.8%7.6%16.2%
    EBIT margin9.0%7.7%13.9%
    Discount rate-9.5%6.3%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.